Ligue 1 2025-2026: Strasbourg vs Metz Prediction

Strasbourg

Home Team
92%
VS

Metz

Away Team
3%
Draw: 5%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 47%
No Goal: 53%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Lens 17 13 1 3 31 13 18 40
2 Paris SG 17 12 3 2 37 15 22 39
3 Marseille 17 10 2 5 36 17 19 32
4 Lille 17 10 2 5 33 22 11 32
5 Lyon 17 9 3 5 25 17 8 30
6 Rennes 17 8 6 3 29 24 5 30
7 Strasbourg 17 7 3 7 26 21 5 24
8 Toulouse 17 6 5 6 24 22 2 23
9 Monaco 17 7 2 8 27 30 -3 23
10 Angers 17 6 4 7 18 20 -2 22
11 Brest 17 6 4 7 23 27 -4 22
12 Lorient 17 4 7 6 20 29 -9 19
13 Le Havre 17 4 6 7 15 23 -8 18
14 Nice 17 5 3 9 20 30 -10 18
15 Paris FC 17 4 4 9 22 31 -9 16
16 Nantes 17 3 5 9 16 28 -12 14
17 Auxerre 17 3 3 11 14 27 -13 12
18 Metz 17 3 3 11 18 38 -20 12

Recent Trends

Strasbourg ⚪ ⚪ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Nice (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ⚪ vs Lorient (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Toulouse (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Brest (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Lens (Goals: 0 - 1)

Metz ⚪ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Lorient (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Paris SG (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Brest (Goals: 2 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Strasbourg

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.24
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.58
# Clean Sheets: 1

Metz

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.82
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.41
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Strasbourg is heavily favored to win their upcoming match against Metz with a staggering 92% probability. Positioned in 7th place in Ligue 1, Strasbourg will be looking to capitalize on their home advantage, while 18th place Metz faces the threat of relegation. Furthermore, the game is projected to stay under 2.5 goals with a 50% probability, suggesting a low-scoring affair.

Match Analysis

Strasbourg's recent form has been patchy, with two draws and a loss in their last three outings. Their latest performances include a 1-1 draw against Nice and a goalless stalemate at home to Lorient, indicating a struggle to convert draws into victories. Nevertheless, their defensive solidity has been notable, conceding an average of just 0.4 goals over their last five matches. Their expected goals data also suggests they have been creating quality chances, averaging over 2 expected goals per game. Metz, on the other hand, has faced difficulties throughout their season, exemplified by their recent form of two losses and a draw. Their defense has been particularly porous, with a concerning average of 2.6 goals conceded per game in their last five matches. Despite showing some attacking promise by scoring twice against Paris SG, their expected goals score of 0.822 suggests they might struggle to break down Strasbourg's defense.

Final Prediction

Given Strasbourg’s superior league position and recent defensive performances, they appear to have the upper hand in this matchup. The key factor to watch will be Strasbourg's ability to convert their expected goals into tangible results, particularly against a Metz defense that has struggled to contain opposing teams. This game is likely to be defined by Strasbourg’s defensive resilience against a Metz side desperate for points.