Ligue 1 2025-2026: Toulouse vs Auxerre Prediction

Toulouse

Home Team
78%
VS

Auxerre

Away Team
10%
Draw: 12%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 19 14 3 2 41 15 26 45
2 Lens 19 14 1 4 33 16 17 43
3 Marseille 19 12 2 5 44 20 24 38
4 Lyon 19 11 3 5 32 20 12 36
5 Lille 19 10 2 7 34 29 5 32
6 Rennes 19 8 7 4 30 27 3 31
7 Strasbourg 19 9 3 7 32 23 9 30
8 Toulouse 19 8 5 6 31 23 8 29
9 Lorient 19 6 7 6 25 30 -5 25
10 Monaco 19 7 3 9 28 33 -5 24
11 Angers 19 6 5 8 20 25 -5 23
12 Brest 19 6 4 9 24 31 -7 22
13 Nice 19 6 3 10 25 36 -11 21
14 Paris FC 19 5 5 9 24 32 -8 20
15 Le Havre 19 4 8 7 16 24 -8 20
16 Nantes 19 3 5 11 18 34 -16 14
17 Auxerre 19 3 3 13 14 29 -15 12
18 Metz 19 3 3 13 21 45 -24 12

Recent Trends

Toulouse ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Brest (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Nice (Goals: 5 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Lens (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Paris FC (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 0)

Auxerre ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Lens (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Brest (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Lille (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Metz (Goals: 3 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Toulouse

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.16
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.12
# Clean Sheets: 3

Auxerre

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.73
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.25
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Toulouse and Auxerre is heavily tilted in favor of the home side, Toulouse, with a 78.0% probability of victory. The prediction also suggests a low-scoring affair, with a 49.0% probability for under 2.5 goals. In the current Ligue 1 standings, Toulouse sits comfortably in 8th position with 29 points, while Auxerre struggles in 17th place, teetering on the brink of relegation with just 12 points.

Match Analysis

Toulouse has shown resilience in their recent performances, with two wins in their last three matches. A notable 5-1 victory against Nice stands out, displaying their attacking prowess at home. However, they did suffer a setback with a 3-0 loss to Lens, highlighting their occasional defensive lapses. The team has managed an average of 1.2 goals per game in their last five appearances, keeping three clean sheets, which speaks to their defensive solidity. On the other hand, Auxerre's recent form is worrying. They have lost all their last three outings without scoring a single goal, including a narrow 1-0 defeat to Paris SG at home. Their struggle to find the back of the net is evident, with an average of just 0.2 goals per game in their last five matches. Defensive frailties are also apparent, as they concede an average of 1.8 goals per game, with no clean sheets to boast about.

Final Prediction

Toulouse holds a significant advantage heading into this fixture, largely due to their more consistent form and home advantage. The disparity in both teams' recent performances and standings suggests Toulouse are the stronger side. A key factor to watch will be whether Auxerre can break their scoring drought against a Toulouse defense that has been relatively solid in recent matches.