Premier League 2026-2027: Arsenal vs Everton Prediction - 24 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Arsenal

Home Team
70%
VS

Everton

Away Team
13%
Draw: 17%
Over 2.5: 55%
Under 2.5: 45%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 10.0
Expected Shots: 26.4
Expected Spread: +1.0

Why the Model Leans Arsenal

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Arsenal
Defense +6.3 Arsenal
Chance creation (xG data) +5.6 Arsenal
Attack +4.2 Arsenal
Results & dominance +3.6 Arsenal

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 85% for Arsenal. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Arsenal attack & chance creation +6.2 Over
Arsenal defense +3.8 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 55% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Man City 7 7 0 0 19 7 12 21
2 Arsenal 7 6 0 1 11 5 6 18
3 Brighton 7 5 1 1 23 5 18 16
4 Chelsea 7 4 1 2 17 13 4 13
5 Liverpool 7 3 3 1 9 8 1 12
6 Brentford 7 2 4 1 13 8 5 10
7 Leeds 7 2 4 1 9 6 3 10
8 Everton 7 2 4 1 8 7 1 10
9 Hull 7 2 3 2 8 7 1 9
10 Ipswich 7 3 0 4 11 15 -4 9
11 Newcastle 7 2 2 3 10 14 -4 8
12 Aston Villa 7 2 2 3 7 11 -4 8
13 Man United 7 1 4 2 10 10 0 7
14 Crystal Palace 7 2 1 4 9 17 -8 7
15 Bournemouth 7 1 3 3 9 13 -4 6
16 Tottenham 7 1 3 3 6 10 -4 6
17 Coventry 7 2 0 5 6 14 -8 6
18 Fulham 7 1 2 4 7 10 -3 5
19 Nott'm Forest 7 1 2 4 5 9 -4 5
20 Sunderland 7 1 1 5 6 14 -8 4

Recent Trends

Arsenal W W L W W

  • Last Match: W vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Leeds (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Brighton (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Sunderland (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Chelsea (Goals: 2 - 1)

Everton L D W D D

  • Last Match: L vs Chelsea (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Hull (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Ipswich (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Tottenham (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Man United (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Arsenal

xG (avg) 2.33
xGA (avg) 0.73
Clean Sheets 2

Everton

xG (avg) 2.02
xGA (avg) 1.51
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Arsenal are the clear favourite, with a 70% chance of winning, against 17% for a draw and 13% for an Everton victory. The goals forecast leans over 2.5, at 55%.

Match Analysis

Arsenal’s home advantage leads the case for them, backed by the stronger defensive record: they have conceded five goals in seven league matches, compared with Everton’s seven. The gap in chance creation also favours Arsenal, and their recent home figures show they have been able to score regularly while limiting opponents. Arsenal have won their last two, beating Leeds 2-1 and then Nott'm Forest 1-0, after losing 0-3 to Brighton. Everton’s latest result was a 0-2 home defeat to Chelsea. Their away chance creation has been better than their finishing: they have averaged 2.0 expected goals away from home but scored 1.0 goal per game there. That gives Everton a route to threaten, though Arsenal’s defence is a meaningful obstacle.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Arsenal
Goals in last 5 matches
Everton
Goals in last 5 matches
The lean is over 2.5 goals, with a 55% probability. Arsenal’s attacking and chance-creation numbers push the forecast towards goals, while their defensive strength pulls the other way, so the over is only a modest favourite.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Arsenal
Corners in last 5 matches
Everton
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 10.0 corners. Arsenal’s latest match had 14 corners in total, while Everton’s had 12, offering some support for a busy count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Arsenal
Shots in last 5 matches
Everton
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 26 shots. Arsenal and Everton’s latest matches featured 23 and 24 shots respectively, suggesting both sides could contribute to a relatively active game.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Arsenal wins by X goals. Negative = Everton wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Arsenal vs Everton with expected spread of +1.0
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Arsenal vs Everton
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Arsenal are projected to finish about 1.0 goal ahead. That fits the strong home-win probability, while leaving room for Everton to make the margin closer.

Final Prediction

Everton’s away chance creation is the clearest threat to the forecast. If they turn more of those opportunities into goals, Arsenal’s defensive advantage may not be enough to keep the match on the expected course.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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