Premier League 2025-2026: Burnley vs West Ham Prediction - 7 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Burnley

Home Team
32%
VS

West Ham

Away Team
45%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 45%
Under 2.5: 55%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 24 16 5 3 46 17 29 53
2 Man City 24 14 5 5 49 23 26 47
3 Aston Villa 24 14 4 6 35 26 9 46
4 Man United 24 11 8 5 44 36 8 41
5 Chelsea 24 11 7 6 42 27 15 40
6 Liverpool 24 11 6 7 39 33 6 39
7 Brentford 24 11 3 10 36 32 4 36
8 Sunderland 24 9 9 6 27 26 1 36
9 Fulham 24 10 4 10 34 35 -1 34
10 Everton 24 9 7 8 26 27 -1 34
11 Newcastle 24 9 6 9 33 33 0 33
12 Bournemouth 24 8 9 7 40 43 -3 33
13 Brighton 24 7 10 7 34 32 2 31
14 Tottenham 24 7 8 9 35 33 2 29
15 Crystal Palace 24 7 8 9 25 29 -4 29
16 Leeds 24 6 8 10 31 42 -11 26
17 Nott'm Forest 24 7 5 12 24 35 -11 26
18 West Ham 24 5 5 14 29 48 -19 20
19 Burnley 24 3 6 15 25 47 -22 15
20 Wolves 24 1 5 18 15 45 -30 8

Recent Trends

Burnley L D D D L

  • Last Match: L vs Sunderland (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Tottenham (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Liverpool (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Man United (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Brighton (Goals: 0 - 2)

West Ham L W W L L

  • Last Match: L vs Chelsea (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Sunderland (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Tottenham (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Wolves (Goals: 0 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Burnley

xG (avg) 1.30
xGA (avg) 2.10
Clean Sheets 0

West Ham

xG (avg) 1.49
xGA (avg) 2.45
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

West Ham are slight favourites here, with a 45.0% chance of victory compared to Burnley’s 32.0% and a 23.0% probability of a draw. With the model leaning towards a low-scoring contest (under 2.5 goals at 55.0%) but still giving a 51.0% chance that both teams score, this shapes up as a tight relegation scrap. In the table, West Ham sit 18th on 20 points, while Burnley are 19th on 15 points, adding extra weight to this clash.

Match Analysis

Burnley’s recent form shows some fight. They’ve taken draws off Tottenham (2–2 at home) and Liverpool (1–1 away), but a 3–0 defeat at Sunderland underlines their fragility. Across the last five games they are averaging 1.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, with expected goals very similar (1.3 for, 2.1 against), and crucially no clean sheets in that spell. They are creating enough to nick goals, but they rarely keep things shut at the back. West Ham arrive with two wins in their last three – a 3–1 home victory over Sunderland and an impressive 2–1 away win at Tottenham – bookended by a 3–2 defeat at Chelsea. Their underlying numbers are more concerning: just 1.0 goal scored and 2.2 conceded on average in the last five, with opponents generating 2.446 expected goals per match. Like Burnley, they’ve failed to keep a clean sheet in that period, suggesting defensive issues on both sides.

Final Prediction

West Ham’s slight edge comes from more recent wins and a better position in the table, even if their defensive stats are shaky. Burnley’s inability to keep clean sheets tips the balance towards the visitors in a cagey match. The key factor to watch will be which side makes better use of limited chances in what the numbers point to as a low-scoring but nervy encounter.

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