Premier League 2025-2026: Chelsea vs Arsenal Prediction - 30 Nov 2025

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Chelsea

Home Team
37%
VS

Arsenal

Away Team
38%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 12 9 2 1 24 6 18 29
2 Chelsea 12 7 2 3 23 11 12 23
3 Man City 12 7 1 4 24 10 14 22
4 Aston Villa 12 6 3 3 15 11 4 21
5 Crystal Palace 12 5 5 2 16 9 7 20
6 Brighton 12 5 4 3 19 16 3 19
7 Sunderland 12 5 4 3 14 11 3 19
8 Bournemouth 12 5 4 3 19 20 -1 19
9 Tottenham 12 5 3 4 20 14 6 18
10 Man United 12 5 3 4 19 19 0 18
11 Everton 12 5 3 4 13 13 0 18
12 Liverpool 12 6 0 6 18 20 -2 18
13 Brentford 12 5 1 6 18 19 -1 16
14 Newcastle 12 4 3 5 13 15 -2 15
15 Fulham 12 4 2 6 13 16 -3 14
16 Nott'm Forest 12 3 3 6 13 20 -7 12
17 West Ham 12 3 2 7 15 25 -10 11
18 Leeds 12 3 2 7 11 22 -11 11
19 Burnley 12 3 1 8 14 24 -10 10
20 Wolves 12 0 2 10 7 27 -20 2

Recent Trends

Chelsea W W W L W

  • Last Match: W vs Burnley (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Wolves (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Tottenham (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Sunderland (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 3 - 0)

Arsenal W D W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Tottenham (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Sunderland (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Burnley (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Fulham (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Chelsea

xG (avg) 2.18
xGA (avg) 1.39
Clean Sheets 4

Arsenal

xG (avg) 1.90
xGA (avg) 0.72
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Chelsea and Arsenal is anticipated to be a closely contested battle. With Arsenal holding a slight edge, the probability of an away victory stands at 38.0%, while Chelsea's chances are at 37.0%. The predicted result suggests a narrow win for Arsenal. The game is also expected to stay under 2.5 goals, aligning with a 48.0% probability. In the current Premier League standings, Arsenal leads the table in 1st place, while Chelsea trails in 2nd place with a six-point gap.

Match Analysis

Chelsea enters this fixture in fine form, riding a three-match winning streak. Their recent victories against Burnley, Wolves, and Tottenham showcased a solid defensive display with three consecutive clean sheets. Chelsea's backline has been particularly impressive, conceding no goals in their last three outings. This defensive resilience is further evidenced by their average of 1.2 goals conceded over the last five games, coupled with an impressive 1.8 goals scored per match. Meanwhile, Arsenal has shown consistency, albeit with a slightly mixed bag of results. A convincing win over Tottenham and a solid victory against Burnley sandwich a draw with Sunderland. Arsenal's strength lies in their robust defense, having conceded only 0.8 goals on average over their last five matches. Their attack is also formidable, with an average of 1.4 goals scored per game, supported by an expected goals figure of 1.898, reflecting their ability to create quality chances.

Final Prediction

Arsenal's slight edge in the prediction can be attributed to their current league-leading form and defensive solidity. With both teams displaying strong defensive records, the match is likely to be tight. A key factor to watch will be Arsenal's ability to convert chances against Chelsea's resilient defense, which could ultimately decide the outcome of this high-stakes encounter.

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