Premier League 2026-2027: Everton vs Chelsea Prediction - 17 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Everton

Home Team
45%
VS

Chelsea

Away Team
28%
Draw: 27%
Over 2.5: 61%
Under 2.5: 39%
Goal: 60%
No Goal: 40%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 27.5
Expected Spread: +0.2

Why the Model Leans Everton

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Everton
Attack +2.9 Chelsea
Chance creation (xG data) +2.3 Everton
Defense +1.9 Chelsea
Results & dominance +1.8 Chelsea

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 61% for Everton. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Chelsea defense +3.6 Over
Chelsea attack & chance creation +3.1 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Everton attack & chance creation +2.1 Over
Form & results +1.8 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 61% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Man City 6 6 0 0 16 5 11 18
2 Arsenal 6 5 0 1 10 5 5 15
3 Brighton 6 4 1 1 18 5 13 13
4 Brentford 6 2 4 0 12 6 6 10
5 Everton 6 2 4 0 8 5 3 10
6 Chelsea 6 3 1 2 15 13 2 10
7 Leeds 6 2 3 1 8 5 3 9
8 Hull 6 2 3 1 8 6 2 9
9 Liverpool 6 2 3 1 7 7 0 9
10 Ipswich 6 3 0 3 9 12 -3 9
11 Newcastle 6 2 2 2 10 13 -3 8
12 Crystal Palace 6 2 1 3 9 12 -3 7
13 Man United 6 1 3 2 9 9 0 6
14 Coventry 6 2 0 4 5 11 -6 6
15 Nott'm Forest 6 1 2 3 5 8 -3 5
16 Aston Villa 6 1 2 3 6 11 -5 5
17 Sunderland 6 1 1 4 6 12 -6 4
18 Bournemouth 6 0 3 3 7 13 -6 3
19 Tottenham 6 0 3 3 3 9 -6 3
20 Fulham 6 0 2 4 6 10 -4 2

Recent Trends

Everton D W D D D

  • Last Match: D vs Hull (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Ipswich (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Tottenham (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Man United (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Bournemouth (Goals: 1 - 1)

Chelsea W L D L W

  • Last Match: W vs Bournemouth (Goals: 5 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Brentford (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Hull (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Brighton (Goals: 4 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Everton

xG (avg) 1.70
xGA (avg) 1.40
Clean Sheets 2

Chelsea

xG (avg) 1.30
xGA (avg) 2.24
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Everton are the most likely winners at 45%, with a Chelsea win at 28% and a draw at 27%. Over 2.5 goals is the lean, at 61%.

Match Analysis

Everton’s home advantage and chance creation give them a narrow lean, though Chelsea’s stronger overall attacking output and defensive showing are counterweights. Everton have averaged 1.7 goals at home and conceded 0.7, while Chelsea have scored 15 goals in six league games. Everton are unbeaten in their last three, most recently drawing 2-2 away to Hull after a 1-0 home win over Ipswich. Chelsea’s 5-1 home win over Bournemouth followed a 0-3 away defeat to Brentford, and they have kept no clean sheet in their last five.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Everton
Goals in last 5 matches
Chelsea
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 is favored at 61%, with Chelsea’s defensive record the strongest reason for expecting goals. They have conceded 13 goals in six league matches and kept no clean sheet in their last five, while both attacks have reasons for optimism.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Everton
Corners in last 5 matches
Chelsea
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 9.9 corners. Everton-Hull produced 13 corners, while Chelsea-Bournemouth had eight, pointing to the potential for a busy count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Everton
Shots in last 5 matches
Chelsea
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 28 shots. Everton and Hull combined for 24 in their latest match, while Chelsea and Bournemouth had 19.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Everton wins by X goals. Negative = Chelsea wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Everton vs Chelsea with expected spread of +0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Everton vs Chelsea
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about 0.2 goals in Everton’s favour, a narrow home advantage rather than a clear gap between the sides.

Final Prediction

Everton’s home expected goals against of 1.4 is higher than the 0.7 goals they have actually conceded per home match. If Chelsea can turn those chances into goals, their attack could overturn the forecast.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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