Premier League 2025-2026: Everton vs Newcastle Prediction
Everton
Home Team
38%
VS
Newcastle
Away Team
37%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5:
47%
Under 2.5:
53%
Goal:
51%
No Goal:
49%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 6 | 18 | 29 |
| 2 | Chelsea | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 11 | 12 | 23 |
| 3 | Man City | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 10 | 14 | 22 |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 21 |
| 5 | Crystal Palace | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 20 |
| 6 | Brighton | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 19 |
| 7 | Sunderland | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 19 |
| 8 | Bournemouth | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 19 |
| 9 | Tottenham | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 18 |
| 10 | Man United | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 18 |
| 11 | Everton | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 18 |
| 12 | Liverpool | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 18 |
| 13 | Brentford | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 16 |
| 14 | Newcastle | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 15 |
| 15 | Fulham | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 14 |
| 16 | Nott'm Forest | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 12 |
| 17 | West Ham | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 11 |
| 18 | Leeds | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 11 |
| 19 | Burnley | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 24 | -10 | 10 |
| 20 | Wolves | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 27 | -20 | 2 |
Recent Trends
Everton
- Last Match: vs Man United (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Fulham (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Sunderland (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Tottenham (Goals: 0 - 3)
- 5th Last Match: vs Man City (Goals: 0 - 2)
Newcastle
- Last Match: vs Man City (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Brentford (Goals: 1 - 3)
- 3rd Last Match: vs West Ham (Goals: 1 - 3)
- 4th Last Match: vs Fulham (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Brighton (Goals: 1 - 2)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Everton
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.73
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.16
# Clean Sheets:
2
Newcastle
Average Expected Goals (xG):
0.54
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.25
# Clean Sheets:
0
Key Prediction Insights
The match between Everton and Newcastle is poised to be a tightly contested affair, with Everton having a slight edge with a 38.0% chance of securing a win. Newcastle follows closely with a 37.0% probability of victory, while a draw holds a 25.0% chance. The predicted result leans towards a home victory for Everton. Additionally, the game is expected to feature fewer than 2.5 goals, reflecting the prediction of a low-scoring encounter. Currently, Everton sits in 11th place in the Premier League standings, while Newcastle occupies the 14th spot.
Match Analysis
Everton enters this match in a relatively positive form, having secured two wins and a draw in their last three outings. A key highlight was their impressive away victory against Manchester United, where they kept a clean sheet. This recent run of form has showcased Everton's defensive capabilities, as they have managed to keep two clean sheets in their last five matches. The Toffees have consistently created scoring opportunities, averaging 1.73 expected goals in their recent games, indicating their ability to pose a threat in attack.
In contrast, Newcastle's recent performances have been inconsistent, with a single win and two defeats in their last three matches. Their victory against Manchester City was notable, yet their struggles on the road were evident in defeats to Brentford and West Ham, where they conceded three goals in each match. Newcastle's defense has been porous, conceding an average of 1.6 goals in their last five games, which could be a concern heading into this fixture. Their expected goals figures suggest limited attacking effectiveness, averaging just 0.536 expected goals per game.
Final Prediction
Everton's recent form and superior expected goals statistics give them a slight advantage over Newcastle, particularly given the Toffees' ability to keep clean sheets and create scoring opportunities. A key factor to watch will be Everton's defense, as they aim to contain Newcastle's attack and capitalize on their home advantage to secure a crucial victory.