Premier League 2026-2027: Hull vs Everton Prediction - 11 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Hull

Home Team
30%
VS

Everton

Away Team
45%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 26.6
Expected Spread: -0.5

Why the Model Leans Everton

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Hull
Attack +11.3 Everton
Chance creation (xG data) +6.7 Everton
Results & dominance +6.0 Everton
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +0.5 Hull

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 60% for Everton. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Hull attack & chance creation +6.0 Under
Form & results +4.1 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Hull defense +2.1 Over
Everton attack & chance creation +1.1 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 56% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Man City 5 5 0 0 13 5 8 15
2 Arsenal 5 4 0 1 8 4 4 12
3 Brighton 5 3 1 1 16 5 11 10
4 Brentford 5 2 3 0 10 4 6 9
5 Leeds 5 2 3 0 7 3 4 9
6 Liverpool 5 2 3 0 7 4 3 9
7 Everton 5 2 3 0 6 3 3 9
8 Hull 5 2 2 1 6 4 2 8
9 Newcastle 5 2 2 1 9 9 0 8
10 Chelsea 5 2 1 2 10 12 -2 7
11 Ipswich 5 2 0 3 7 11 -4 6
12 Man United 5 1 2 2 8 8 0 5
13 Nott'm Forest 5 1 2 2 4 5 -1 5
14 Sunderland 5 1 1 3 6 10 -4 4
15 Crystal Palace 5 1 1 3 6 11 -5 4
16 Aston Villa 5 1 1 3 4 9 -5 4
17 Bournemouth 5 0 3 2 6 8 -2 3
18 Coventry 5 1 0 4 1 10 -9 3
19 Fulham 5 0 2 3 5 8 -3 2
20 Tottenham 5 0 2 3 2 8 -6 2

Recent Trends

Hull L D D W W

  • Last Match: L vs Newcastle (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Chelsea (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Aston Villa (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Coventry (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Man United (Goals: 2 - 0)

Everton W D D D W

  • Last Match: W vs Ipswich (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Tottenham (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Man United (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Bournemouth (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Hull

xG (avg) 1.16
xGA (avg) 1.71
Clean Sheets 3

Everton

xG (avg) 1.63
xGA (avg) 1.50
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

Everton are the most likely winners at 45%, with Hull on 30% and a draw on 25%. The goals outlook leans under 2.5, at 56%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage gives Hull a useful counterweight, but Everton have scored more and created better chances across the season so far. Their unbeaten start includes a 1-0 win over Ipswich and a 0-0 draw at Tottenham, while Hull have gone three matches without a win, including a 1-2 defeat to Newcastle. Everton’s recent results have been steadier, though their finishing has not matched their chances. They have averaged 1.6 expected goals but only 0.5 actual goals per game across the last five, suggesting that their attacking opportunities have not yet been converted consistently. Hull’s three clean sheets in that period offer some resistance, but Everton’s chance creation is the clearest difference between the sides.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Hull
Goals in last 5 matches
Everton
Goals in last 5 matches
Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 56%. Hull’s limited attacking output and chance creation pull the forecast toward a lower total, despite Everton’s stronger attacking numbers and a league scoring environment that offers some support for goals.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Hull
Corners in last 5 matches
Everton
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 9.5 corners. Recent matches for both teams have generally included several corners for each side, with Hull’s last three producing 11, 14 and 7 in total, and Everton’s producing 8, 11 and 7.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Hull
Shots in last 5 matches
Everton
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is about 27 shots. Recent combined shot counts have often been substantial, including 34 in Hull’s match at Newcastle and 32 in Everton’s win over Ipswich.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Hull wins by X goals. Negative = Everton wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Hull vs Everton with expected spread of -0.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Hull vs Everton
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about half a goal in Everton’s favour. That reflects the away side’s stronger attack and chance creation, while Hull’s home advantage keeps the forecast relatively close.

Final Prediction

Everton’s under-conversion is the clearest route to a different result: if their recent chances continue to go unfinished, Hull’s clean-sheet record could make the home advantage count.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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