Serie A 2026-2027: Atalanta vs Frosinone Prediction - 25 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Atalanta

Home Team
57%
VS

Frosinone

Away Team
20%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 62%
Under 2.5: 38%
Goal: 66%
No Goal: 34%
Expected Corners: 11.0
Expected Shots: 31.1
Expected Spread: +0.6

Why the Model Leans Atalanta

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Atalanta
Defense +6.5 Atalanta
Results & dominance +5.0 Atalanta
Chance creation (xG data) +2.9 Frosinone
Attack +2.7 Atalanta

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 74% for Atalanta. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Frosinone attack & chance creation +6.0 Over
Frosinone defense +3.6 Over
Atalanta defense +2.9 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Form & results +1.4 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 62% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 7 6 1 0 21 9 12 19
2 Lazio 7 6 1 0 14 4 10 19
3 Roma 7 5 2 0 16 3 13 17
4 Milan 7 4 3 0 14 7 7 15
5 Como 7 4 2 1 12 7 5 14
6 Frosinone 7 4 1 2 13 9 4 13
7 Cagliari 7 4 1 2 6 7 -1 13
8 Juventus 7 3 2 2 9 8 1 11
9 Napoli 7 3 1 3 10 7 3 10
10 Torino 7 3 1 3 10 9 1 10
11 Atalanta 7 3 0 4 10 11 -1 9
12 Lecce 7 3 0 4 9 12 -3 9
13 Sassuolo 7 2 2 3 12 14 -2 8
14 Monza 7 2 1 4 13 15 -2 7
15 Bologna 7 1 2 4 6 10 -4 5
16 Udinese 7 1 1 5 9 16 -7 4
17 Genoa 7 1 1 5 5 13 -8 4
18 Fiorentina 7 1 1 5 8 17 -9 4
19 Parma 7 1 1 5 4 13 -9 4
20 Venezia 7 1 0 6 6 16 -10 3

Recent Trends

Atalanta L W L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Venezia (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Cagliari (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 1 - 2)

Frosinone W L W D W

  • Last Match: W vs Sassuolo (Goals: 4 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Como (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Genoa (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Venezia (Goals: 3 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Atalanta

xG (avg) 1.38
xGA (avg) 1.99
Clean Sheets 0

Frosinone

xG (avg) 1.50
xGA (avg) 2.40
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Atalanta are favoured to win, with a 57% chance, compared with 23% for a draw and 20% for a Frosinone victory. The goals outlook leans over 2.5, at 62%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage is the clearest separator, with Atalanta also rated stronger defensively and on recent results. But Frosinone have shown they can create chances: their away expected-goals average is 1.5, and their attack is a notable counterweight to Atalanta’s home edge. Both sides have had recent games in which defending was a concern. Atalanta’s latest match ended in a 3-2 loss to Milan, and they have not kept a clean sheet in their last five. Frosinone beat Sassuolo 4-2 most recently, after losing 3-0 to Napoli. At home, Atalanta average 1.4 expected goals but score 1.8, suggesting their returns have run ahead of their chances.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Atalanta
Goals in last 5 matches
Frosinone
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 62%. Frosinone’s attack and chance creation are the strongest push towards goals, while defensive vulnerabilities on both sides add to the case.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Atalanta
Corners in last 5 matches
Frosinone
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 11.0 corners. Frosinone’s recent matches have produced between 9 and 15 corners, supporting a relatively busy count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Atalanta
Shots in last 5 matches
Frosinone
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is about 31 shots. Recent totals include 23 in Atalanta’s match against Milan and 35 in Frosinone’s win over Sassuolo, around that mark.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Atalanta wins by X goals. Negative = Frosinone wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Atalanta vs Frosinone with expected spread of +0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Atalanta vs Frosinone
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Atalanta are projected to finish about 0.6 goals ahead. That is a modest home-side advantage, rather than a forecast of a one-sided result.

Final Prediction

Frosinone’s ability to create chances away from home could make Atalanta’s defensive record decisive. If the visitors turn that threat into goals, the home side’s advantage could quickly narrow.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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