Serie A 2026-2027: Cagliari vs Juventus Prediction - 11 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Cagliari

Home Team
23%
VS

Juventus

Away Team
55%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 55%
Under 2.5: 45%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 10.0
Expected Shots: 26.8
Expected Spread: -0.8

Why the Model Leans Juventus

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Chance creation (xG data) +14.3 Juventus
Home advantage +12.9 Cagliari
Defense +8.2 Juventus
Attack +7.2 Juventus
Results & dominance +4.7 Juventus

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 71% for Juventus. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Juventus attack & chance creation +4.5 Over
Cagliari attack & chance creation +4.4 Under
Cagliari defense +4.2 Over
Form & results +2.5 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 55% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Roma 5 4 1 0 14 3 11 13
2 Inter 5 4 1 0 15 8 7 13
3 Lazio 5 4 1 0 8 3 5 13
4 Cagliari 5 4 0 1 5 2 3 12
5 Milan 5 3 2 0 10 4 6 11
6 Frosinone 5 3 1 1 9 4 5 10
7 Juventus 5 3 1 1 8 4 4 10
8 Como 5 3 1 1 9 6 3 10
9 Napoli 5 2 1 2 7 6 1 7
10 Sassuolo 5 2 1 2 9 9 0 7
11 Atalanta 5 2 0 3 5 7 -2 6
12 Lecce 5 2 0 3 5 10 -5 6
13 Udinese 5 1 1 3 8 11 -3 4
14 Torino 5 1 1 3 5 8 -3 4
15 Parma 5 1 1 3 4 7 -3 4
16 Monza 5 1 1 3 8 12 -4 4
17 Fiorentina 5 1 1 3 6 12 -6 4
18 Bologna 5 0 2 3 3 6 -3 2
19 Genoa 5 0 1 4 3 10 -7 1
20 Venezia 5 0 0 5 4 13 -9 0

Recent Trends

Cagliari W W W L W

  • Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Atalanta (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Parma (Goals: 1 - 0)

Juventus W L D W W

  • Last Match: W vs Atalanta (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Sassuolo (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Parma (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Frosinone (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Cagliari

xG (avg) 1.12
xGA (avg) 2.21
Clean Sheets 3

Juventus

xG (avg) 1.90
xGA (avg) 0.67
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

Juventus are favoured to win at 55%, with Cagliari at 23% and a draw at 22%. The lean is towards over 2.5 goals, at 55%.

Match Analysis

Juventus have the stronger case in chance creation and defending, while Cagliari’s home advantage helps keep the contest close. Cagliari have won three straight, including a 1-0 win at Udinese and a 2-1 victory at Atalanta, but those away wins came despite facing 26 and 22 shots respectively. Juventus’ recent form is mixed, with a 2-0 win over Atalanta followed by a 3-2 defeat at Sassuolo. Their chances have outpaced their returns: Juventus average 1.9 expected goals but have scored 1.5 goals per game across the last five. That attacking capacity could test a Cagliari defence that has looked more secure in results than in the volume of chances allowed.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Cagliari
Goals in last 5 matches
Juventus
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is a slight lean at 55%. Juventus’ attack and chance creation, alongside Cagliari’s defensive profile, push the forecast towards goals, although Cagliari’s own chance creation points the other way.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Cagliari
Corners in last 5 matches
Juventus
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 10.0 corners. Recent matches have shown potential for a high count, including 17 corners in Cagliari’s game at Udinese and 13 in Juventus’ visit to Sassuolo.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Cagliari
Shots in last 5 matches
Juventus
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 27 shots in total. Juventus had 25 combined shots in their recent win over Atalanta, while Cagliari’s away opponents have produced high shot counts in their last two matches.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Cagliari wins by X goals. Negative = Juventus wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Cagliari vs Juventus with expected spread of -0.8
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Cagliari vs Juventus
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about 0.9 goals in Juventus’ favour. That reflects their advantage in the win probabilities, despite Cagliari’s strong recent run and home advantage.

Final Prediction

Cagliari’s recent wins are a reminder that their defensive results can hold even when opponents get plenty of attempts. If they keep Juventus from turning their chances into goals, the forecast could shift.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel