Serie A 2026-2027: Genoa vs Venezia Prediction - 25 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Genoa

Home Team
46%
VS

Venezia

Away Team
27%
Draw: 27%
Over 2.5: 59%
Under 2.5: 41%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 10.5
Expected Shots: 29.2
Expected Spread: +0.3

Why the Model Leans Genoa

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Genoa
Chance creation (xG data) +4.5 Venezia
Defense +3.8 Genoa
Attack +1.7 Venezia
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +1.2 Genoa

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 63% for Genoa. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Venezia defense +7.5 Over
Genoa attack & chance creation +4.7 Under
Genoa defense +3.3 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 59% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 7 6 1 0 21 9 12 19
2 Lazio 7 6 1 0 14 4 10 19
3 Roma 7 5 2 0 16 3 13 17
4 Milan 7 4 3 0 14 7 7 15
5 Como 7 4 2 1 12 7 5 14
6 Frosinone 7 4 1 2 13 9 4 13
7 Cagliari 7 4 1 2 6 7 -1 13
8 Juventus 7 3 2 2 9 8 1 11
9 Napoli 7 3 1 3 10 7 3 10
10 Torino 7 3 1 3 10 9 1 10
11 Atalanta 7 3 0 4 10 11 -1 9
12 Lecce 7 3 0 4 9 12 -3 9
13 Sassuolo 7 2 2 3 12 14 -2 8
14 Monza 7 2 1 4 13 15 -2 7
15 Bologna 7 1 2 4 6 10 -4 5
16 Udinese 7 1 1 5 9 16 -7 4
17 Genoa 7 1 1 5 5 13 -8 4
18 Fiorentina 7 1 1 5 8 17 -9 4
19 Parma 7 1 1 5 4 13 -9 4
20 Venezia 7 1 0 6 6 16 -10 3

Recent Trends

Genoa L W L D L

  • Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Fiorentina (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Parma (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Frosinone (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 1 - 4)

Venezia W L L L L

  • Last Match: W vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Fiorentina (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Frosinone (Goals: 2 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Genoa

xG (avg) 1.15
xGA (avg) 1.43
Clean Sheets 0

Venezia

xG (avg) 1.88
xGA (avg) 2.64
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Genoa are favoured to win at 46%, with a draw at 27% and a Venezia win also at 27%. The goals forecast leans over 2.5, with a 59% probability.

Match Analysis

Home advantage is the clearest point in Genoa’s favour, while their defensive record is better than Venezia’s. Genoa have conceded two goals per home match in the available sample and have kept no clean sheet in their last five. Venezia’s recent away numbers point to a vulnerable defence, conceding 2.7 goals per match, though their chance creation away from home has been strong. Venezia arrive after beating Napoli 1-0, despite managing only nine shots to Napoli’s 29 and winning no corners against Napoli’s 12. That result shows they can make limited chances count. Genoa, meanwhile, lost 0-2 away to Roma in their latest match, after beating Fiorentina 2-1 at home. Their attack has not been prolific, so Venezia’s ability to create chances could matter if the visitors defend more securely than their away record suggests.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Genoa
Goals in last 5 matches
Venezia
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 59%. Venezia’s away defending is the main reason, with their recent away matches producing 2.7 goals conceded per game. Genoa’s home defence has also allowed two goals per match in the available sample.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Genoa
Corners in last 5 matches
Venezia
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 10.5 corners. Recent matches have varied sharply, including Venezia’s 0-12 corner count against Napoli, so the projection points to a busy total without a consistent pattern in the latest results.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Genoa
Shots in last 5 matches
Venezia
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 29 shots. Venezia’s Napoli match alone featured 38 attempts, while Genoa and Venezia have both had recent matches with substantial shot counts.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Genoa wins by X goals. Negative = Venezia wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Genoa vs Venezia with expected spread of +0.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Genoa vs Venezia
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Genoa are projected to finish about 0.4 goals ahead. That modest margin reflects their home advantage, rather than a clear gap between the sides.

Final Prediction

Venezia’s chance creation away from home could overturn the forecast if it carries through to goals. Their latest win over Napoli showed they can take a result even when heavily outshot.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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