Serie A 2026-2027: Juventus vs Lazio Prediction - 18 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Juventus

Home Team
61%
VS

Lazio

Away Team
17%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 57%
Under 2.5: 43%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 10.0
Expected Shots: 25.6
Expected Spread: +0.8

Why the Model Leans Juventus

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Juventus
Attack +4.8 Juventus
Chance creation (xG data) +4.6 Juventus
Results & dominance +4.5 Juventus
Defense +1.7 Juventus

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 78% for Juventus. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Juventus attack & chance creation +10.3 Over
Juventus defense +5.8 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Lazio defense +1.7 Under
Lazio attack & chance creation +1.5 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 57% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 6 5 1 0 18 8 10 16
2 Lazio 6 5 1 0 11 4 7 16
3 Roma 6 4 2 0 14 3 11 14
4 Cagliari 6 4 1 1 6 3 3 13
5 Milan 6 3 3 0 11 5 6 12
6 Juventus 6 3 2 1 9 5 4 11
7 Como 6 3 2 1 9 6 3 11
8 Napoli 6 3 1 2 10 6 4 10
9 Frosinone 6 3 1 2 9 7 2 10
10 Atalanta 6 3 0 3 8 8 0 9
11 Sassuolo 6 2 2 2 10 10 0 8
12 Torino 6 2 1 3 7 9 -2 7
13 Lecce 6 2 0 4 6 12 -6 6
14 Bologna 6 1 2 3 5 7 -2 5
15 Udinese 6 1 1 4 9 13 -4 4
16 Monza 6 1 1 4 9 15 -6 4
17 Genoa 6 1 1 4 5 11 -6 4
18 Parma 6 1 1 4 4 10 -6 4
19 Fiorentina 6 1 1 4 7 14 -7 4
20 Venezia 6 0 0 6 5 16 -11 0

Recent Trends

Juventus D W L D W

  • Last Match: D vs Cagliari (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Atalanta (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Sassuolo (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Parma (Goals: 2 - 0)

Lazio W W D W W

  • Last Match: W vs Monza (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Venezia (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Milan (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Juventus

xG (avg) 1.81
xGA (avg) 0.26
Clean Sheets 2

Lazio

xG (avg) 1.52
xGA (avg) 1.57
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Juventus are favoured to win at 61%, with a draw at 21% and a Lazio win at 17%. The lean is towards over 2.5 goals, at 57%.

Match Analysis

Juventus have the home advantage and the stronger attacking and chance-creation profile behind the forecast. Their latest result was a 1-1 draw away to Cagliari, but they had 22 shots to Cagliari’s four, a sign that they created plenty despite taking only a point. Their home defending has also been a strength, which could make it difficult for Lazio to turn possession into clear chances. Lazio arrive unbeaten in six league matches, with two wins since their 2-2 draw with Milan, most recently beating Monza 3-1. Their away results have been tight defensively, but the underlying figures point to some risk: Lazio have conceded 0.3 goals per away match while allowing 1.6 expected goals. Juventus’ ability to create at home could test that gap between results and chances conceded.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Juventus
Goals in last 5 matches
Lazio
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is the narrow lean at 57%. Juventus’ attack and chance creation are the main reasons for the higher-goal outlook, although their home defensive record and Lazio’s defensive numbers offer a counterweight.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Juventus
Corners in last 5 matches
Lazio
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 10.0 corners in total. Juventus won nine corners in their latest match, while Lazio’s recent games have also produced chances for both sides to win corners.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Juventus
Shots in last 5 matches
Lazio
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is about 26 shots. Juventus had 22 in their draw with Cagliari, while Lazio recorded 17 in their latest win over Monza, supporting the expectation of a busy match.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Juventus wins by X goals. Negative = Lazio wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Juventus vs Lazio with expected spread of +0.8
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Juventus vs Lazio
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about 0.8 goals in Juventus’ favour. That reflects the home advantage and the difference in the sides’ attacking and defensive profiles, while allowing for Lazio’s strong start to the season.

Final Prediction

Lazio’s ability to keep conceding few goals away from home could overturn the forecast if it holds up against Juventus’ home chance creation. The key question is whether that defensive record is sustainable given the quality of chances Lazio have allowed.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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