Serie A 2026-2027: Roma vs Cagliari Prediction - 27 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Roma

Home Team
75%
VS

Cagliari

Away Team
10%
Draw: 15%
Over 2.5: 61%
Under 2.5: 39%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 28.9
Expected Spread: +1.2

Why the Model Leans Roma

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Roma
Chance creation (xG data) +9.6 Roma
Attack +4.9 Roma
Results & dominance +4.4 Roma
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +2.7 Roma

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 88% for Roma. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Roma attack & chance creation +7.8 Over
Cagliari attack & chance creation +4.0 Under
Cagliari defense +3.9 Over
Form & results +2.6 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 61% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 8 7 1 0 23 10 13 22
2 Lazio 8 7 1 0 16 5 11 22
3 Roma 8 5 3 0 19 6 13 18
4 Milan 8 5 3 0 16 7 9 18
5 Como 8 5 2 1 14 7 7 17
6 Frosinone 8 4 2 2 17 13 4 14
7 Juventus 8 4 2 2 11 8 3 14
8 Torino 8 4 1 3 13 11 2 13
9 Cagliari 8 4 1 3 6 9 -3 13
10 Napoli 8 3 2 3 13 10 3 11
11 Atalanta 8 3 1 4 14 15 -1 10
12 Lecce 8 3 0 5 9 14 -5 9
13 Bologna 8 2 2 4 8 10 -2 8
14 Sassuolo 8 2 2 4 12 16 -4 8
15 Monza 8 2 1 5 15 18 -3 7
16 Genoa 8 2 1 5 6 13 -7 7
17 Udinese 8 1 1 6 9 18 -9 4
18 Fiorentina 8 1 1 6 9 19 -10 4
19 Parma 8 1 1 6 5 15 -10 4
20 Venezia 8 1 0 7 6 17 -11 3

Recent Trends

Roma D W D D W

  • Last Match: D vs Napoli (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Como (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Inter (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 0)

Cagliari L L D W W

  • Last Match: L vs Bologna (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Monza (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Juventus (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Atalanta (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Roma

xG (avg) 2.76
xGA (avg) 1.04
Clean Sheets 3

Cagliari

xG (avg) 1.49
xGA (avg) 1.55
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Roma are the clear favourite, with a 75% chance of winning, against 10% for Cagliari and 15% for a draw. The goals forecast leans over 2.5, with a 61% probability.

Match Analysis

Home advantage and Roma’s greater chance creation are central to the forecast. Roma have scored an average of 2.5 goals at home, while their home xG is 2.8, suggesting they have created slightly more than they have converted. That attacking output will test a Cagliari side that has conceded four goals away from home in its latest match. Roma’s 3-3 draw away to Napoli showed their capacity to score, though they will want to be more secure defensively. Cagliari’s recent form is a sharper concern: they lost 0-4 away to Monza before a 0-2 home defeat by Bologna, leaving them with consecutive losses and no goals across those two matches. Roma, by contrast, have kept three clean sheets in their last five.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Roma
Goals in last 5 matches
Cagliari
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 61%. Roma’s attack and chance creation are the strongest push towards goals, while Cagliari’s defensive record also supports that view, despite their recent lack of scoring.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Roma
Corners in last 5 matches
Cagliari
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 9.9 corners. Roma won 11 corners in their latest match, while Cagliari conceded six in their most recent outing, pointing to opportunities for the home side to build pressure.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Roma
Shots in last 5 matches
Cagliari
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is about 29 shots. Roma attempted 24 in their latest match, a substantial share of the projected match volume, and their home chance creation has been strong.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Roma wins by X goals. Negative = Cagliari wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Roma vs Cagliari with expected spread of +1.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Roma vs Cagliari
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about 1.2 goals in Roma’s favour. That reflects the strong home-win probability and the gap between Roma’s attacking output and Cagliari’s recent results.

Final Prediction

Cagliari’s best route to upsetting the forecast is to make Roma’s chances count for less than their home xG suggests they should. If Roma convert their usual volume of opportunities, Cagliari’s recent defensive struggles could be decisive.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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