Serie A 2026-2027: Torino vs Udinese Prediction - 12 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Torino

Home Team
37%
VS

Udinese

Away Team
35%
Draw: 28%
Over 2.5: 45%
Under 2.5: 55%
Goal: 46%
No Goal: 54%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 26.2
Expected Spread: -0.0

Why the Model Leans Torino

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Torino
Attack +6.5 Udinese
Chance creation (xG data) +5.5 Udinese
Results & dominance +1.4 Udinese
Defense +0.7 Torino

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 51% for Torino. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Torino attack & chance creation +6.0 Under
Udinese attack & chance creation +4.8 Under
Udinese defense +3.9 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Torino defense +0.7 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 55% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Roma 5 4 1 0 14 3 11 13
2 Inter 5 4 1 0 15 8 7 13
3 Lazio 5 4 1 0 8 3 5 13
4 Cagliari 5 4 0 1 5 2 3 12
5 Milan 5 3 2 0 10 4 6 11
6 Frosinone 5 3 1 1 9 4 5 10
7 Juventus 5 3 1 1 8 4 4 10
8 Como 5 3 1 1 9 6 3 10
9 Napoli 5 2 1 2 7 6 1 7
10 Sassuolo 5 2 1 2 9 9 0 7
11 Atalanta 5 2 0 3 5 7 -2 6
12 Lecce 5 2 0 3 5 10 -5 6
13 Udinese 5 1 1 3 8 11 -3 4
14 Torino 5 1 1 3 5 8 -3 4
15 Parma 5 1 1 3 4 7 -3 4
16 Monza 5 1 1 3 8 12 -4 4
17 Fiorentina 5 1 1 3 6 12 -6 4
18 Bologna 5 0 2 3 3 6 -3 2
19 Genoa 5 0 1 4 3 10 -7 1
20 Venezia 5 0 0 5 4 13 -9 0

Recent Trends

Torino D L W L L

  • Last Match: D vs Bologna (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Fiorentina (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 2)

Udinese L L L W D

  • Last Match: L vs Cagliari (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 3 - 5)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Monza (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Como (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Torino

xG (avg) 0.92
xGA (avg) 2.04
Clean Sheets 0

Udinese

xG (avg) 1.16
xGA (avg) 2.79
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Torino are the narrowest pick to win at 37%, with Udinese at 35% and a draw at 28%. The lean is under 2.5 goals, at 55%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage is the clearest point in Torino’s favour, but Udinese have the stronger attacking and chance-creation indicators. Torino’s defensive numbers offer a small counterweight, leaving little to separate the sides. Udinese come in after three straight defeats, including a 1-0 loss to Cagliari and a 5-3 defeat at Inter. Torino’s 0.5 goals per game against 0.9 expected goals suggests they have scored less than their chances warrant, while Udinese’s 3.0 goals against 1.2 expected goals points to finishing well ahead of their underlying chance quality.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Torino
Goals in last 5 matches
Udinese
Goals in last 5 matches
Under 2.5 is a slight lean at 55%, with both teams’ attack and chance-creation figures pointing toward fewer goals. Udinese’s defensive record and the league scoring environment pull toward the over, keeping the call close.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Torino
Corners in last 5 matches
Udinese
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 9.7 corners. Recent counts show potential for a busy total, including Udinese’s 16-1 corner advantage against Cagliari, though Torino’s own totals have been more moderate.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Torino
Shots in last 5 matches
Udinese
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
About 26 shots are expected, in line with recent volume: Udinese had 31 against Cagliari, while Torino and Bologna combined for 25 in their meeting.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Torino wins by X goals. Negative = Udinese wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Torino vs Udinese with expected spread of -0.0
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Torino vs Udinese
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin rounds to 0.0, pointing to an essentially even match rather than a meaningful advantage for either side.

Final Prediction

Udinese’s stronger chance creation could overturn the slight home lean if it produces goals. Torino’s recent gap between chances and scoring makes that a particular concern.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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