Serie A 2026-2027: Udinese vs Milan Prediction - 25 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Udinese

Home Team
23%
VS

Milan

Away Team
56%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 58%
Under 2.5: 42%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 23.9
Expected Spread: -0.6

Why the Model Leans Milan

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Udinese
Chance creation (xG data) +9.4 Milan
Attack +8.4 Milan
Defense +6.8 Milan
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +5.4 Milan

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 71% for Milan. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Udinese defense +7.7 Over
Form & results +2.5 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 58% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 7 6 1 0 21 9 12 19
2 Lazio 7 6 1 0 14 4 10 19
3 Roma 7 5 2 0 16 3 13 17
4 Milan 7 4 3 0 14 7 7 15
5 Como 7 4 2 1 12 7 5 14
6 Frosinone 7 4 1 2 13 9 4 13
7 Cagliari 7 4 1 2 6 7 -1 13
8 Juventus 7 3 2 2 9 8 1 11
9 Napoli 7 3 1 3 10 7 3 10
10 Torino 7 3 1 3 10 9 1 10
11 Atalanta 7 3 0 4 10 11 -1 9
12 Lecce 7 3 0 4 9 12 -3 9
13 Sassuolo 7 2 2 3 12 14 -2 8
14 Monza 7 2 1 4 13 15 -2 7
15 Bologna 7 1 2 4 6 10 -4 5
16 Udinese 7 1 1 5 9 16 -7 4
17 Genoa 7 1 1 5 5 13 -8 4
18 Fiorentina 7 1 1 5 8 17 -9 4
19 Parma 7 1 1 5 4 13 -9 4
20 Venezia 7 1 0 6 6 16 -10 3

Recent Trends

Udinese L L L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Lecce (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Torino (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Cagliari (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 3 - 5)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 1 - 2)

Milan W D W D D

  • Last Match: W vs Atalanta (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Lazio (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Juventus (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Udinese

xG (avg) 1.34
xGA (avg) 2.34
Clean Sheets 0

Milan

xG (avg) 1.47
xGA (avg) 1.63
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Milan are favoured to win at 56%, with Udinese on 23% and a draw on 21%. The goals outlook leans over 2.5, at 58%.

Match Analysis

Udinese’s home advantage is a counterweight, but Milan’s chance creation and more reliable defending support the away lean. Udinese have lost their last three, most recently 0-3 at home to Lecce. Milan have two wins and a draw in their last three, including a latest 3-2 victory over Atalanta. The contrast in form is sharpened by Udinese’s lack of clean sheets in their last five. At home, they average 0.5 goals from 1.3 expected goals, suggesting their chances have outstripped their finishing. If that conversion improves, Udinese could make better use of their home advantage, but Milan’s recent results offer stronger evidence of an attack able to take its chances.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Udinese
Goals in last 5 matches
Milan
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 58%. Udinese’s home defending is the clearest reason, with 1.75 goals conceded per match in the recent home sample, though their poor results are a counterpoint.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Udinese
Corners in last 5 matches
Milan
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 9.6 corners. Udinese’s recent matches have ranged from five total corners against Lecce to 17 against Cagliari, so the projection sits between two very different outcomes.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Udinese
Shots in last 5 matches
Milan
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 24 shots. Udinese’s last three matches produced 31, 27 and 31 shots, while Milan’s totals were 23, 21 and 16.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Udinese wins by X goals. Negative = Milan wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Udinese vs Milan with expected spread of -0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Udinese vs Milan
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Milan are projected to win by about 0.6 goals. That reflects the away side’s greater win probability, despite Udinese’s home advantage.

Final Prediction

Udinese’s clearest way to overturn the forecast is to finish more effectively at home. Their recent expected-goal figure suggests they have created opportunities, but have not turned enough of them into goals.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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