NBA 2025-2026: Minnesota Timberwolves vs New Orleans Pelicans: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Minnesota Timberwolves
Home Team
76.6%
VS
New Orleans Pelicans
Away Team
23.4%
Key Prediction Insights
Minnesota Timberwolves are the pick to win (76.6% probability). Expected starting fives — Minnesota: Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert. New Orleans: Herbert Jones, Saddiq Bey, Trey Murphy III, Zion Williamson, Derik Queen.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 237.49 points, signaling a high-scoring game and an up-tempo feel. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 10.66, giving a double-digit advantage to the home team and aligning with Minnesota’s clear edge in the prediction.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
237.5
Most likely outcome: 237 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Minnesota Timberwolves - New Orleans Pelicans)
10.7
Most likely outcome: 10 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Game Analysis
Minnesota is 2-1 over the last three: a 128-126 win over Toronto, a 128-137 loss at Memphis, and a 131-114 win over Memphis. They’ve been scoring at a high clip while allowing multi-game shootouts. New Orleans is 0-3 in the same stretch: 137-141 vs Milwaukee, 95-102 vs Charlotte, and 114-124 vs Philadelphia, showing defensive struggles in two high-scoring losses and an off night offensively vs Charlotte.
Looking at the expected starters, Minnesota’s five average an offensive rating of 122.40 and a defensive rating of 113.52, with an average of 18.23 points made per starter. New Orleans’ five average an offensive rating of 115.32 and a defensive rating of 118.94, with 16.27 points made per starter. Those numbers favor Minnesota on both ends: a stronger collective offense and a better defensive rating against a Pelicans unit that has allowed a lot of points recently.
Final Prediction
Minnesota’s combination of higher offensive firepower and cleaner defensive numbers explains the 76.6% lean. Watch how the Pelicans try to slow Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle; if they can’t, the projected 10.66-point edge for the favorite will likely hold.
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