NBA 2025-2026: Chicago Bulls vs New York Knicks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Chicago Bulls
Home Team
29.7%
VS
New York Knicks
Away Team
70.3%
Key Prediction Insights
The New York Knicks are projected to win (70.3% probability). Expected starting five — Chicago Bulls: Josh Giddey (OFF 112.6 / DEF 117.1 / 18.4167 ppg), Isaac Okoro (115.5 / 121.0 / 9.1458), Matas Buzelis (109.1 / 117.0 / 14.9649), Guerschon Yabusele (114.0 / 122.3 / 10.5), Jalen Smith (120.8 / 115.4 / 10.2444). New York Knicks: Jalen Brunson (122.2 / 117.7 / 27.0), Josh Hart (119.8 / 111.0 / 11.9111), Mikal Bridges (128.8 / 114.3 / 15.7018), OG Anunoby (113.3 / 113.1 / 16.4419), Karl-Anthony Towns (119.7 / 110.3 / 19.9245).
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 232.55 points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring game and a lively pace on both ends. The spread is listed as Home - Away = -6.5, which means the away team is expected to be favored by 6.5 points and should hold a clear edge on the board.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
232.6
Most likely outcome: 232 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Chicago Bulls - New York Knicks)
-6.5
Most likely outcome: -7 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Game Analysis
Chicago arrives on a three-game skid (losses: 110-126 vs Detroit, 101-110 vs Toronto, 105-124 vs Boston) with defensive lapses — twice allowing 120+ points — while their starters are producing moderate scoring. New York is 2-1 in the last three (wins 108-106 vs Houston, 138-89 vs Philadelphia; loss 111-126 vs Detroit), mixing a dominant blowout with a close win and one bad defensive outing.
The Knicks’ projected starting five averages higher offensive production: average OFF rating 120.76 and average points made 18.20 per starter, with a team average defensive rating of 113.28. The Bulls’ projected starters average OFF 114.40, DEF 118.56, and 12.65 points each. That gap in offensive effectiveness and the Knicks’ stronger defensive numbers help explain the edge.
Final Prediction
New York’s combination of higher offensive ratings and steadier defense gives them the advantage in this matchup. Watch how Chicago defends the paint and whether their starters can slow Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns — that will likely decide the game.
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