NBA 2025-2026: Los Angeles Lakers vs Denver Nuggets: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Los Angeles Lakers
Home Team
35.4%
VS
Denver Nuggets
Away Team
64.6%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Luka Dončić
OR
120.4
DR
113.5
PTS
32.9
VS
Jamal Murray
OR
124.5
DR
120.1
PTS
25.7
SG
Marcus Smart
OR
105.8
DR
116.8
PTS
9.4
VS
Christian Braun
OR
120.2
DR
117.7
PTS
10.8
SF
Austin Reaves
OR
123.0
DR
117.6
PTS
23.8
VS
Aaron Gordon
OR
119.8
DR
114.9
PTS
16.6
PF
LeBron James
OR
117.4
DR
117.1
PTS
21.4
VS
Cameron Johnson
OR
120.9
DR
119.0
PTS
11.3
C
Deandre Ayton
OR
124.9
DR
115.1
PTS
12.6
VS
Nikola Jokić
OR
136.6
DR
112.8
PTS
28.7
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
The Denver Nuggets are projected to win (64.6% probability).
Expected starting five — Los Angeles Lakers: Luka Dončić, Marcus Smart, Austin Reaves, LeBron James, Deandre Ayton.
Expected starting five — Denver Nuggets: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson, Nikola Jokić.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 243.08 points, signaling a fast-paced, high-scoring game with both teams able to put up points.
The expected spread (Home - Away) is -0.34, essentially a pick’em but with a very slight 0.34-point lean toward the visiting team.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
243.1
Most likely outcome: 243 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Los Angeles Lakers - Denver Nuggets)
-0.3
Most likely outcome: -1 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Both teams show rising momentum over the last five games, with the Lakers climbing more sharply (+34.1) and the Nuggets rising more modestly (+9.7).
Los Angeles Lakers
1568.1
+34.1 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-12 | Chicago Bulls | 1568.1 | +5.4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1562.7 | +11.4 |
| 2026-03-08 | New York Knicks | 1551.3 | +12.8 |
| 2026-03-06 | Indiana Pacers | 1538.5 | +4.5 |
| 2026-03-05 | Denver Nuggets | 1534.0 | — |
Denver Nuggets
1565.3
+9.7 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-12 | San Antonio Spurs | 1565.3 | +13.8 |
| 2026-03-11 | Houston Rockets | 1551.5 | +14.0 |
| 2026-03-09 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1537.5 | -6.0 |
| 2026-03-06 | New York Knicks | 1543.5 | -12.1 |
| 2026-03-05 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1555.6 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Los Angeles Lakers
4-1 in last 5
W
W
W
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bulls | 142 | 130 | +12 | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 120 | 106 | +14 | |
| New York Knicks | 110 | 97 | +13 | |
| Indiana Pacers | 128 | 117 | +11 | |
| Denver Nuggets | 113 | 120 | -7 |
Denver Nuggets
3-2 in last 5
W
W
L
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio Spurs | 136 | 131 | +5 | |
| Houston Rockets | 129 | 93 | +36 | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 126 | 129 | -3 | |
| New York Knicks | 103 | 142 | -39 | |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 120 | 113 | +7 |
Game Analysis
The Lakers come in on a three-game winning streak (142-130, 120-106, 110-97), scoring at a high clip and closing games with balanced offense and improved defense. The Nuggets are 2-1 in their last three (136-131, 129-93, 126-129), flashing explosive scoring—particularly in blowouts—while slipping in a close loss that exposed some defensive inconsistencies. Recent results suggest both teams can flood the scoreboard, but Denver has had moments of defensive vulnerability too.
Looking at the starters, Denver’s group carries a higher average offensive rating (124.4) driven by Nikola Jokić’s 136.6 and Jamal Murray’s 124.5, while the Lakers’ five average 118.3 offensively. Defensively the Lakers’ starters average 116.0 versus the Nuggets’ 116.9, and the Lakers’ starters average 20.0 points made compared with Denver’s 18.6. That mix gives Denver an offensive edge and L.A. a marginal defensive balance, setting up a chess match between Jokić’s playmaking and Luka/LeBron’s scoring.
Final Prediction
Denver’s offensive firepower—anchored by Nikola Jokić and supported by Jamal Murray—gives them the edge in a tight matchup. Watch how well the Lakers contain Jokić and whether Denver can limit Luka’s playmaking; that will likely decide the game.
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