NBA 2025-2026: New York Knicks vs Golden State Warriors: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

New York Knicks

Home Team
86.2%
VS

Golden State Warriors

Away Team
13.8%
2025-2026 Season

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Jalen Brunson
OR
121.2
DR
116.4
PTS
26.3
VS
Pat Spencer
OR
94.3
DR
116.3
PTS
6.5
SG
Josh Hart
OR
119.2
DR
110.0
PTS
11.8
VS
Brandin Podziemski
OR
114.5
DR
114.7
PTS
12.8
SF
Mikal Bridges
OR
125.3
DR
112.8
PTS
15.0
VS
Will Richard
OR
113.3
DR
114.5
PTS
6.9
PF
OG Anunoby
OR
115.4
DR
111.7
PTS
16.7
VS
Gui Santos
OR
115.9
DR
113.5
PTS
7.7
C
Karl-Anthony Towns
OR
121.5
DR
109.5
PTS
20.0
VS
Quinten Post
OR
105.1
DR
114.2
PTS
7.6
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

The model projects the New York Knicks to win with an 86.2% probability. Expected starting fives — New York Knicks: Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns; Golden State Warriors: Pat Spencer, Brandin Podziemski, Will Richard, Gui Santos, Quinten Post.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The expected combined total is 236.38 points, signaling a game that should lean toward a higher-scoring, up-tempo affair rather than a defensive slog. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 15.67, effectively giving the home team a roughly 15.7-point cushion — in this projection that advantage falls squarely on the Knicks.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 236.4 Most likely outcome: 236 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (New York Knicks - Golden State Warriors) 15.7 Most likely outcome: 16 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

The Knicks’ rating shows a small overall decline but a recent uptick, while the Warriors’ rating has been steadily falling over the last five games.

New York Knicks

1601.4 -16.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-13 Indiana Pacers 1601.4 +3.3
2026-03-11 Utah Jazz 1598.1 +4.6
2026-03-09 Los Angeles Clippers 1593.5 -11.7
2026-03-08 Los Angeles Lakers 1605.2 -12.9
2026-03-06 Denver Nuggets 1618.1 —

Golden State Warriors

1463.7 -39.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-13 Minnesota Timberwolves 1463.7 -8.7
2026-03-10 Chicago Bulls 1472.4 -12.9
2026-03-09 Utah Jazz 1485.3 -13.1
2026-03-07 Oklahoma City Thunder 1498.4 -4.9
2026-03-05 Houston Rockets 1503.3 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

New York Knicks

3-2 in last 5
W W L L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Indiana Pacers 101 92 +9
Utah Jazz 134 117 +17
Los Angeles Clippers 118 126 -8
Los Angeles Lakers 97 110 -13
Denver Nuggets 142 103 +39

Golden State Warriors

1-4 in last 5
L L L L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Minnesota Timberwolves 117 127 -10
Chicago Bulls 124 130 -6
Utah Jazz 116 119 -3
Oklahoma City Thunder 97 104 -7
Houston Rockets 115 113 +2

Game Analysis

New York is 2-1 in its last three — wins over Indiana (101-92) and Utah (134-117) sandwiching a loss to the Clippers (118-126) — showing they can both defend (holding Indiana to 92) and explode offensively (134 vs Utah). Golden State arrives on a three-game skid, losing to Minnesota (117-127), Chicago (124-130) and Utah (116-119), with close scores but no wins to stem the slide. The Knicks’ starters average an offensive rating of 120.52, defensive rating of 112.08, and 17.96 points made per starter; that reflects balanced firepower led by Jalen Brunson (26.3 ppg) and Karl-Anthony Towns (20.0 ppg). The Warriors’ projected starters average an offensive rating of 108.62, defensive rating of 114.64, and 8.3 points made per starter, indicating less scoring punch across the five and a slightly worse defensive profile.

Final Prediction

New York’s combination of higher offensive efficiency and deeper scoring among starters gives them a clear edge. Watch whether Golden State can generate consistent offense beyond Brandin Podziemski to keep this within reach.

Get Daily NBA Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven NBA predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel