NBA 2025-2026: Sacramento Kings vs Utah Jazz: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Sacramento Kings
Home Team
73.4%
VS
Utah Jazz
Away Team
26.6%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Russell Westbrook
OR
102.3
DR
119.7
PTS
15.4
VS
Isaiah Collier
OR
113.3
DR
124.5
PTS
11.5
SG
Nique Clifford
OR
90.9
DR
121.2
PTS
7.6
VS
Cody Williams
OR
97.7
DR
124.5
PTS
6.5
SF
DeMar DeRozan
OR
122.1
DR
122.9
PTS
18.5
VS
Elijah Harkless
OR
105.6
DR
121.8
PTS
4.7
PF
Precious Achiuwa
OR
114.4
DR
118.2
PTS
9.0
VS
Brice Sensabaugh
OR
106.7
DR
124.5
PTS
13.4
C
Maxime Raynaud
OR
113.1
DR
120.1
PTS
11.1
VS
Oscar Tshiebwe
OR
134.4
DR
124.1
PTS
4.3
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
The pick: Sacramento Kings to win (73.4% probability).
Expected starting fives — Sacramento Kings: Russell Westbrook, Nique Clifford, DeMar DeRozan, Precious Achiuwa, Maxime Raynaud. Utah Jazz: Isaiah Collier, Cody Williams, Elijah Harkless, Brice Sensabaugh, Oscar Tshiebwe.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a 238.16-point game, signaling a fast, high-scoring affair with both teams likely to push the pace. The expected spread is 3.17 points in favor of the home team, giving Sacramento a modest edge on the scoreboard if they are hosting.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
238.2
Most likely outcome: 238 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Sacramento Kings - Utah Jazz)
3.2
Most likely outcome: 3 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
New to probability charts?
Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
ELO Rating Trends
Sacramento’s power rating has been rising (up +34.1 over five games) while Utah’s has dipped slightly (down -4.3), showing momentum favoring the Kings.
Sacramento Kings
1341.8
+34.1 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Los Angeles Clippers | 1341.8 | +15.4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Charlotte Hornets | 1326.4 | -4.3 |
| 2026-03-10 | Indiana Pacers | 1330.7 | +9.4 |
| 2026-03-08 | Chicago Bulls | 1321.3 | +13.6 |
| 2026-03-05 | New Orleans Pelicans | 1307.7 | — |
Utah Jazz
1344.2
-4.3 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | Portland Trail Blazers | 1344.2 | -5.8 |
| 2026-03-11 | New York Knicks | 1350.0 | -4.7 |
| 2026-03-09 | Golden State Warriors | 1354.7 | +13.1 |
| 2026-03-07 | Milwaukee Bucks | 1341.6 | -6.9 |
| 2026-03-05 | Washington Wizards | 1348.5 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Sacramento Kings
3-2 in last 5
W
L
W
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Clippers | 118 | 109 | +9 | |
| Charlotte Hornets | 109 | 117 | -8 | |
| Indiana Pacers | 114 | 109 | +5 | |
| Chicago Bulls | 126 | 110 | +16 | |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 123 | 133 | -10 |
Utah Jazz
2-3 in last 5
L
L
W
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Trail Blazers | 114 | 124 | -10 | |
| New York Knicks | 117 | 134 | -17 | |
| Golden State Warriors | 119 | 116 | +3 | |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 99 | 113 | -14 | |
| Washington Wizards | 122 | 112 | +10 |
Game Analysis
Sacramento is 2-1 in its last three, beating the Clippers 118-109 and Pacers 114-109 while falling 109-117 to Charlotte—a recent stretch that shows they can close out games but aren’t immune to lapses. Utah is 1-2, coming off a 119-116 win over Golden State but back-to-back losses to Portland (114-124) and New York (117-134), suggesting inconsistency on both ends.
Looking at the projected starting fives, Sacramento’s group averages an offensive rating of 108.56, defensive rating of 120.42, and 12.32 points made per starter—DeRozan and Westbrook will be central to creating offense. Utah’s starters average a higher offensive rating at 111.54 but a tougher defensive rating at 123.88 and just 8.08 points made per starter; Oscar Tshiebwe stands out with a 134.4 offensive rating despite averaging 4.3 points, indicating efficiency in limited opportunities.
Final Prediction
Sacramento’s upward trend and stronger balance in scoring give them the edge in this matchup. The key factor to watch: whether Utah’s efficient pieces can convert their offensive ratings into volume scoring, or if Sacramento’s recent momentum and balanced starters control the tempo.
Get Daily NBA Predictions
Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven NBA predictions directly on your phone.
Join Our Telegram Channel