NBA 2025-2026: San Antonio Spurs vs Phoenix Suns: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

San Antonio Spurs

Home Team
62.8%
VS

Phoenix Suns

Away Team
37.2%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
De'Aaron Fox
OR
119.4
DR
113.2
PTS
19.0
VS
Collin Gillespie
OR
119.4
DR
115.2
PTS
13.1
SG
Stephon Castle
OR
115.9
DR
111.6
PTS
16.4
VS
Devin Booker
OR
118.0
DR
117.2
PTS
25.8
SF
Devin Vassell
OR
116.6
DR
114.4
PTS
14.3
VS
Jalen Green
OR
97.2
DR
114.1
PTS
17.2
PF
Julian Champagnie
OR
117.1
DR
111.8
PTS
11.2
VS
Oso Ighodaro
OR
116.6
DR
112.6
PTS
6.1
C
Victor Wembanyama
OR
118.9
DR
99.9
PTS
24.2
VS
Rasheer Fleming
OR
91.9
DR
115.2
PTS
3.6
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

San Antonio Spurs are the pick to win (62.8% probability). Expected starting five — San Antonio Spurs: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama. Expected starting five — Phoenix Suns: Collin Gillespie, Devin Booker, Jalen Green, Oso Ighodaro, Rasheer Fleming.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected total is 225.88 points, suggesting a game that leans toward a solid scoring pace rather than a defensive slog. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 11.61 in favor of the home team, giving a double-digit advantage to whoever is hosting — that margin aligns with the Spurs as the game favorite.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 225.9 Most likely outcome: 225 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (San Antonio Spurs - Phoenix Suns) 11.6 Most likely outcome: 11 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

San Antonio's elo is rising slightly over the last five games while Phoenix's elo has been falling notably.

San Antonio Spurs

1696.8 +2.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-17 Sacramento Kings 1696.8 +3.0
2026-03-16 Los Angeles Clippers 1693.8 +6.5
2026-03-14 Charlotte Hornets 1687.3 +6.9
2026-03-12 Denver Nuggets 1680.4 -13.8
2026-03-10 Boston Celtics 1694.2 —

Phoenix Suns

1531.6 -23.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-17 Minnesota Timberwolves 1531.6 -9.2
2026-03-16 Boston Celtics 1540.8 -7.6
2026-03-13 Toronto Raptors 1548.4 -11.3
2026-03-12 Indiana Pacers 1559.7 +4.3
2026-03-10 Milwaukee Bucks 1555.4 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

San Antonio Spurs

4-1 in last 5
W W W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Sacramento Kings 132 104 +28
Los Angeles Clippers 119 115 +4
Charlotte Hornets 115 102 +13
Denver Nuggets 131 136 -5
Boston Celtics 125 116 +9

Phoenix Suns

2-3 in last 5
L L L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Minnesota Timberwolves 104 116 -12
Boston Celtics 112 120 -8
Toronto Raptors 115 122 -7
Indiana Pacers 123 108 +15
Milwaukee Bucks 129 114 +15

Game Analysis

San Antonio arrives on a three-game winning streak, beating Sacramento 132-104, the Clippers 119-115, and Charlotte 115-102 — a run that shows both offensive firepower and tightening defense. Phoenix, by contrast, is on a three-game skid, dropping games to Minnesota (104-116), Boston (112-120), and Toronto (115-122), signaling trouble slowing opponents and closing out games. Looking at the expected fives, San Antonio’s starters average an offensive rating of 117.58, defensive rating of 110.18, and 17.02 points made per player; Victor Wembanyama’s 99.9 defensive rating stands out. Phoenix’s projected starters average an offensive rating of 108.62, defensive rating of 114.86, and 13.16 points made per player; Devin Booker (118.0 OR, 25.8 points) is the clear scoring engine but the group’s defensive rating is higher.

Final Prediction

The Spurs’ recent form, better average defensive profile (notably Wembanyama) and positive power trend give them the edge. Watch how Phoenix defends Victor Wembanyama and whether Booker can single-handedly offset San Antonio’s balanced attack.

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