NBA 2025-2026: Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Houston Rockets

Home Team
79.8%
VS

Miami Heat

Away Team
20.2%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Reed Sheppard
OR
116.0
DR
112.6
PTS
13.4
VS
Davion Mitchell
OR
122.4
DR
114.7
PTS
9.1
SG
Amen Thompson
OR
122.9
DR
113.9
PTS
17.9
VS
Norman Powell
OR
114.8
DR
115.3
PTS
22.3
SF
Jabari Smith Jr.
OR
123.8
DR
114.4
PTS
15.6
VS
Pelle Larsson
OR
118.6
DR
115.9
PTS
10.8
PF
Kevin Durant
OR
124.4
DR
114.7
PTS
25.7
VS
Tyler Herro
OR
117.7
DR
117.0
PTS
21.4
C
Alperen Şengün
OR
113.8
DR
111.7
PTS
20.2
VS
Bam Adebayo
OR
114.2
DR
110.1
PTS
20.2
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Houston Rockets to win (Probability: 79.8%). Expected starting five — Houston Rockets: Reed Sheppard, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Kevin Durant, Alperen Şengün. Miami Heat: Davion Mitchell, Norman Powell, Pelle Larsson, Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined total of 239.07 points, signaling a fairly high-scoring game and a quicker pace on both ends. The expected spread is 6.6 in favor of the home team, giving Houston a clear cushion and suggesting they should be able to control the margin if their offense clicks.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 239.1 Most likely outcome: 239 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Houston Rockets - Miami Heat) 6.6 Most likely outcome: 6 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Houston’s power rating has dipped modestly (-3.8 over five games) while Miami’s has fallen sharply (-25.3 over five games), indicating stronger momentum for Houston.

Houston Rockets

1556.7 -3.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-20 Atlanta Hawks 1556.7 +11.8
2026-03-18 Los Angeles Lakers 1544.9 -10.1
2026-03-16 Los Angeles Lakers 1555.0 -10.9
2026-03-13 New Orleans Pelicans 1565.9 +5.4
2026-03-11 Denver Nuggets 1560.5 —

Miami Heat

1528.5 -25.3 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-19 Los Angeles Lakers 1528.5 -9.5
2026-03-17 Charlotte Hornets 1538.0 -11.3
2026-03-14 Orlando Magic 1549.3 -10.7
2026-03-12 Milwaukee Bucks 1560.0 +6.2
2026-03-10 Washington Wizards 1553.8 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Houston Rockets

2-3 in last 5
W L L W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Atlanta Hawks 117 95 +22
Los Angeles Lakers 116 124 -8
Los Angeles Lakers 92 100 -8
New Orleans Pelicans 107 105 +2
Denver Nuggets 93 129 -36

Miami Heat

2-3 in last 5
L L L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Los Angeles Lakers 126 134 -8
Charlotte Hornets 106 136 -30
Orlando Magic 117 121 -4
Milwaukee Bucks 112 105 +7
Washington Wizards 150 129 +21

Game Analysis

Houston is coming off a 117-95 win over Atlanta after back-to-back losses to the Lakers (116-124 and 92-100). That single decisive victory suggests they can close games well when things click. Miami is sliding with three straight losses — 126-134 vs LAL, 106-136 vs CHA, and 117-121 vs ORL — showing recent trouble stopping opponents and inconsistent offense. Looking at the starters, Houston’s five average offensive rating is 120.18, defensive rating 113.46, and average points made 18.56; Miami’s starters average offensive rating 117.54, defensive rating 114.60, and average points made 16.76. Houston holds the edge in offensive firepower and marginally better team defense from the projected starters, which should translate into more efficient scoring opportunities.

Final Prediction

Houston’s higher offensive profile among starters and Miami’s pronounced downward trend give the Rockets the edge. Watch the interior matchup (Alperen Şengün vs Bam Adebayo) and Kevin Durant’s scoring rhythm — those will likely decide the margin.

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