NBA 2025-2026: Atlanta Hawks vs New York Knicks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Atlanta Hawks
Home Team
59.2%
VS
New York Knicks
Away Team
40.8%
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AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME Atlanta Hawks
CJ McCollum
PTS
18.9
REB
3.6
AST
4.2
3PM
2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Dyson Daniels
PTS
12.3
REB
6.0
AST
5.5
3PM
0.5
Distribution (PDF)
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Nickeil Alexander-Walker
PTS
20.5
REB
4.2
AST
3.8
3PM
2.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Jalen Johnson
PTS
22.5
REB
9.3
AST
6.8
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
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Onyeka Okongwu
PTS
15.5
REB
7.5
AST
2.5
3PM
1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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AWAY New York Knicks
Jalen Brunson
PTS
24.4
REB
3.9
AST
6.9
3PM
2.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Josh Hart
PTS
12.0
REB
7.1
AST
5.2
3PM
1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Mikal Bridges
PTS
13.9
REB
3.8
AST
3.5
3PM
2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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OG Anunoby
PTS
16.3
REB
5.5
AST
2.8
3PM
2.7
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Karl-Anthony Towns
PTS
19.2
REB
11.1
AST
3.8
3PM
1.1
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
CJ McCollum
OR
113.1
DR
114.9
PTS
18.6
VS
Jalen Brunson
OR
121.0
DR
116.7
PTS
26.0
SG
Dyson Daniels
OR
117.7
DR
111.9
PTS
11.8
VS
Josh Hart
OR
121.5
DR
111.0
PTS
12.1
SF
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
OR
116.5
DR
116.0
PTS
20.6
VS
Mikal Bridges
OR
124.9
DR
113.8
PTS
14.7
PF
Jalen Johnson
OR
116.4
DR
110.7
PTS
22.8
VS
OG Anunoby
OR
118.0
DR
112.7
PTS
16.9
C
Onyeka Okongwu
OR
116.4
DR
111.7
PTS
15.4
VS
Karl-Anthony Towns
OR
122.0
DR
110.3
PTS
20.1
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Atlanta Hawks to win (59.2% probability).
Expected starting fives — Atlanta Hawks: CJ McCollum, Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu. New York Knicks: Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model pegs the game at a combined 232.18 points, indicating a fast-paced, high-scoring affair where both offenses should have room to operate. The expected spread is Home - Away = 3.05, which implies the home team holds about a three-point edge going into tip-off.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
232.2
Most likely outcome: 232 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Atlanta Hawks - New York Knicks)
3.0
Most likely outcome: 3 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Atlanta’s power rating is on an upward run (+30.8 over five games) while New York has ticked down slightly (-10.4 over five games).
Atlanta Hawks
1596.6
+30.8 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Brooklyn Nets | 1596.6 | +4.4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Orlando Magic | 1592.2 | +10.4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Boston Celtics | 1581.8 | +12.2 |
| 2026-03-28 | Sacramento Kings | 1569.6 | +3.8 |
| 2026-03-27 | Boston Celtics | 1565.8 | — |
New York Knicks
1598.9
-10.4 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Chicago Bulls | 1598.9 | +5.0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Memphis Grizzlies | 1593.9 | +4.5 |
| 2026-03-31 | Houston Rockets | 1589.4 | -12.3 |
| 2026-03-29 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1601.7 | -7.6 |
| 2026-03-26 | Charlotte Hornets | 1609.3 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Atlanta Hawks
4-1 in last 5
W
W
W
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooklyn Nets | 141 | 107 | +34 | |
| Orlando Magic | 130 | 101 | +29 | |
| Boston Celtics | 112 | 102 | +10 | |
| Sacramento Kings | 123 | 113 | +10 | |
| Boston Celtics | 102 | 109 | -7 |
New York Knicks
2-3 in last 5
W
W
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bulls | 136 | 96 | +40 | |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 130 | 119 | +11 | |
| Houston Rockets | 94 | 111 | -17 | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 100 | 111 | -11 | |
| Charlotte Hornets | 103 | 114 | -11 |
Game Analysis
Atlanta arrives on a three-game winning streak — 141-107 over Brooklyn, 130-101 at Orlando, and 112-102 vs Boston — showing strong scoring balance and consistent defensive stops in recent outings. New York has two big wins (136-96 vs Chicago, 130-119 vs Memphis) but a heavy 94-111 loss to Houston, leaving them a bit streaky in the last three.
Looking at the projected lineups, the Hawks’ five average an offensive rating of 116.02, defensive rating of 113.04, and 17.84 points made per starter; they’re balanced and trending up. The Knicks’ projected five average an offensive rating of 121.48, defensive rating of 112.90, and 17.96 points made per starter — superior firepower on paper, especially offensively, but not by much in scoring per starter.
Final Prediction
Atlanta’s momentum and recent three-game surge give them the edge in this matchup despite New York’s higher starting-five offensive rating. Watch whether the Hawks can sustain their offensive outbursts and limit Brunson/Towns — that matchup will likely decide the winner.
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