NBA 2025-2026: Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Phoenix Suns
Home Team
72.8%
VS
Dallas Mavericks
Away Team
27.2%
Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.
Set it upPlayer Projections
AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME Phoenix Suns
Jordan Goodwin
PTS
9.9
REB
4.7
AST
3.2
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Devin Booker
PTS
27.7
REB
4.1
AST
6.2
3PM
2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Jalen Green
PTS
20.9
REB
4.4
AST
3.9
3PM
2.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Dillon Brooks
PTS
19.4
REB
3.9
AST
2.0
3PM
2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Mark Williams
PTS
13.0
REB
8.2
AST
1.5
3PM
0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Dallas Mavericks
Max Christie
PTS
12.8
REB
3.2
AST
2.3
3PM
2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Cooper Flagg
PTS
25.1
REB
6.5
AST
4.5
3PM
1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Naji Marshall
PTS
15.8
REB
4.4
AST
3.4
3PM
0.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
P.J. Washington
PTS
14.6
REB
6.1
AST
1.7
3PM
1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Daniel Gafford
PTS
11.1
REB
7.2
AST
1.3
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Jordan Goodwin
OR
115.8
DR
112.1
PTS
8.7
VS
Max Christie
OR
112.3
DR
119.1
PTS
12.1
SG
Devin Booker
OR
119.3
DR
117.3
PTS
25.9
VS
Cooper Flagg
OR
108.4
DR
115.1
PTS
21.2
SF
Jalen Green
OR
101.5
DR
114.5
PTS
18.3
VS
Naji Marshall
OR
114.1
DR
117.0
PTS
15.2
PF
Dillon Brooks
OR
108.2
DR
116.8
PTS
20.2
VS
P.J. Washington
OR
103.7
DR
114.3
PTS
14.2
C
Mark Williams
OR
132.3
DR
110.4
PTS
11.7
VS
Daniel Gafford
OR
121.8
DR
112.8
PTS
9.5
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
The model favors the Phoenix Suns to win (72.8% probability).
Expected starting five — Phoenix Suns: Jordan Goodwin, Devin Booker, Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Mark Williams. Dallas Mavericks: Max Christie, Cooper Flagg, Naji Marshall, P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The game’s expected total is 236.29 points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring affair and a decent offensive pace from both teams. The projected spread is 7.28 (Home − Away), meaning the Suns are favored by about 7.3 points and are expected to hold a clear edge.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
236.3
Most likely outcome: 236 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Phoenix Suns - Dallas Mavericks)
7.3
Most likely outcome: 7 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
New to probability charts?
Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Download Probability Data
Full distributions as structured data (JSON or CSV)
ELO Rating Trends
Both teams’ ratings are drifting downward over the last five games, with Phoenix falling more steeply (-21.7) than Dallas (-6.8).
Phoenix Suns
1506.3
-21.7 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | Houston Rockets | 1506.3 | -9.5 |
| 2026-04-05 | Chicago Bulls | 1515.8 | +6.5 |
| 2026-04-02 | Charlotte Hornets | 1509.3 | -8.6 |
| 2026-03-31 | Orlando Magic | 1517.9 | -10.1 |
| 2026-03-30 | Memphis Grizzlies | 1528.0 | — |
Dallas Mavericks
1355.0
-6.8 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | Los Angeles Clippers | 1355.0 | -4.7 |
| 2026-04-05 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1359.7 | +14.6 |
| 2026-04-03 | Orlando Magic | 1345.1 | -6.6 |
| 2026-03-31 | Milwaukee Bucks | 1351.7 | -10.1 |
| 2026-03-30 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1361.8 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Phoenix Suns
2-3 in last 5
L
W
L
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Rockets | 105 | 119 | -14 | |
| Chicago Bulls | 120 | 110 | +10 | |
| Charlotte Hornets | 107 | 127 | -20 | |
| Orlando Magic | 111 | 115 | -4 | |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 131 | 105 | +26 |
Dallas Mavericks
1-4 in last 5
L
W
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Clippers | 103 | 116 | -13 | |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 134 | 128 | +6 | |
| Orlando Magic | 127 | 138 | -11 | |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 99 | 123 | -24 | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 94 | 124 | -30 |
Game Analysis
Phoenix is 1-2 in its last three: a 105-119 loss to Houston, a 120-110 win over Chicago, and a 107-127 defeat at Charlotte — results that show scoring upside but also bouts of defensive breakdowns. Dallas is also 1-2, with a 103-116 loss to the Clippers, a 134-128 win over the Lakers, and a 127-138 loss to Orlando, indicating they can score in bunches but have allowed big totals recently.
Looking at the expected starters, Phoenix’s five average an offensive rating of 115.42, a defensive rating of 114.22, and combine for 84.8 points (about 17.0 per starter). Dallas’s projected starters average an offensive rating of 112.06, a defensive rating of 115.66, and combine for 72.2 points (about 14.4 per starter). Those numbers give Phoenix the edge on both ends on paper — more scoring punch from their starters and a slightly better defensive profile.
Final Prediction
Phoenix’s higher offensive profile and greater scoring from its projected starters are the main reasons to back them. Key factor to watch: whether the Suns can tighten up defensively to prevent another game where they surrender 116+ points, because Dallas has shown it can erupt offensively.
Get Daily NBA Predictions
Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven NBA predictions directly on your phone.
Join Our Telegram Channel