NBA 2025-2026: San Antonio Spurs vs Portland Trail Blazers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

San Antonio Spurs

Home Team
51.2%
VS

Portland Trail Blazers

Away Team
48.8%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME San Antonio Spurs
PTS 17.0 REB 3.8 AST 6.0 3PM 1.7
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 13.6 REB 4.1 AST 3.1 3PM 2.6
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PTS 13.0 REB 4.0 AST 4.8 3PM 1.1
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PTS 12.0 REB 5.2 AST 2.2 3PM 2.7
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PTS 7.5 REB 5.7 AST 2.1 3PM 0.0
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AWAY Portland Trail Blazers
PTS 17.5 REB 3.8 AST 6.2 3PM 3.1
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PTS 15.7 REB 3.1 AST 4.2 3PM 2.1
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PTS 24.7 REB 6.8 AST 6.4 3PM 1.9
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PTS 14.2 REB 4.7 AST 1.7 3PM 2.9
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PTS 11.3 REB 10.3 AST 1.4 3PM 1.0
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
De'Aaron Fox
OR
118.0
DR
112.6
PTS
18.4
VS
Jrue Holiday
OR
116.8
DR
116.0
PTS
16.4
SG
Devin Vassell
OR
117.9
DR
113.6
PTS
14.0
VS
Scoot Henderson
OR
108.4
DR
114.9
PTS
14.2
SF
Dylan Harper
OR
115.5
DR
111.8
PTS
11.8
VS
Deni Avdija
OR
116.4
DR
115.2
PTS
24.0
PF
Julian Champagnie
OR
118.7
DR
111.5
PTS
11.2
VS
Toumani Camara
OR
113.7
DR
116.3
PTS
13.4
C
Luke Kornet
OR
155.1
DR
110.2
PTS
6.5
VS
Donovan Clingan
OR
128.6
DR
110.2
PTS
12.1
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

San Antonio Spurs are the pick to win (51.2% probability). Expected starting five — San Antonio Spurs: De'Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell, Dylan Harper, Julian Champagnie, Luke Kornet. Portland Trail Blazers: Jrue Holiday, Scoot Henderson, Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara, Donovan Clingan.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects 231.18 combined points, signaling a fairly up-tempo, high-scoring affair. The expected spread is 5.79 (home − away), which indicates the home team should have about a 5.8-point edge.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 231.2 Most likely outcome: 231 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (San Antonio Spurs - Portland Trail Blazers) 5.8 Most likely outcome: 5 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

San Antonio’s power rating is essentially stable with a slight uptick (+2.7 over five games), while Portland has climbed more noticeably (+19.0).

San Antonio Spurs

1720.6 +2.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-06 Philadelphia 76ers 1720.6 +4.5
2026-04-04 Denver Nuggets 1716.1 -12.3
2026-04-02 Los Angeles Clippers 1728.4 +6.4
2026-04-01 Golden State Warriors 1722.0 +4.1
2026-03-30 Chicago Bulls 1717.9 —

Portland Trail Blazers

1510.9 +19.0 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-06 Denver Nuggets 1510.9 -7.2
2026-04-02 New Orleans Pelicans 1518.1 +7.7
2026-03-31 Los Angeles Clippers 1510.4 +12.9
2026-03-29 Washington Wizards 1497.5 +5.6
2026-03-27 Dallas Mavericks 1491.9 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

San Antonio Spurs

4-1 in last 5
W L W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Philadelphia 76ers 115 102 +13
Denver Nuggets 134 136 -2
Los Angeles Clippers 118 99 +19
Golden State Warriors 127 113 +14
Chicago Bulls 129 114 +15

Portland Trail Blazers

3-2 in last 5
L W W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Denver Nuggets 132 137 -5
New Orleans Pelicans 118 106 +12
Los Angeles Clippers 114 104 +10
Washington Wizards 123 88 +35
Dallas Mavericks 93 100 -7

Game Analysis

San Antonio arrives 2-1 over the last three, with wins over the 76ers (115-102) and Clippers (118-99) and a narrow loss to Denver (134-136). Those results show they can defend effectively (holding the Clippers to 99) but also concede points in shootouts. Portland is also 2-1, beating New Orleans (118-106) and the Clippers (114-104) while dropping a close game to Denver (132-137); their recent surge is reflected in the bigger power-rating gain. Looking at the projected starters, San Antonio’s five average an offensive rating of 125.04 and defensive rating of 111.94 with an average 12.38 points made per starter—San Antonio’s offensive rating is boosted by Luke Kornet’s 155.1 mark. Portland’s projected five average an offensive rating of 116.78 and defensive rating of 114.52 with an average 16.02 points made per starter, led by Deni Avdija’s 24.0 points. Those numbers suggest San Antonio has a slight edge on both ends of the floor by rating, while Portland leans on higher per-starter scoring.

Final Prediction

San Antonio’s marginal advantage in average offensive (125.04) and defensive (111.94) ratings and recent form give them the edge in a close game. Watch how Spurs’ interior offense (Luke Kornet) and their ability to limit Deni Avdija’s 24.0 points influence the final margin.

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