NBA 2025-2026: San Antonio Spurs vs Dallas Mavericks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

San Antonio Spurs

Home Team
90.9%
VS

Dallas Mavericks

Away Team
9.1%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME San Antonio Spurs
PTS 18.6 REB 3.7 AST 6.4 3PM 1.9
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 18.7 REB 5.4 AST 8.2 3PM 1.3
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PTS 14.8 REB 4.2 AST 3.0 3PM 2.7
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PTS 12.6 REB 5.2 AST 2.3 3PM 2.7
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PTS 25.8 REB 11.7 AST 4.0 3PM 1.9
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AWAY Dallas Mavericks
PTS 9.5 REB 3.4 AST 5.9 3PM 1.1
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PTS 12.3 REB 3.2 AST 2.0 3PM 2.4
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PTS 24.5 REB 6.6 AST 4.6 3PM 1.5
Distribution (PDF)
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PTS 10.2 REB 3.6 AST 2.3 3PM 1.4
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PTS 11.9 REB 6.8 AST 1.5 3PM 0.8
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
De'Aaron Fox
OR
117.9
DR
112.5
PTS
18.5
VS
Ryan Nembhard
OR
101.7
DR
120.0
PTS
6.4
SG
Stephon Castle
OR
117.0
DR
111.3
PTS
16.7
VS
Max Christie
OR
112.7
DR
119.1
PTS
12.2
SF
Devin Vassell
OR
117.6
DR
113.4
PTS
14.0
VS
Cooper Flagg
OR
107.9
DR
115.0
PTS
21.0
PF
Julian Champagnie
OR
118.1
DR
111.4
PTS
11.1
VS
Khris Middleton
OR
95.5
DR
123.2
PTS
9.9
C
Victor Wembanyama
OR
120.5
DR
99.2
PTS
24.8
VS
Marvin Bagley III
OR
126.4
DR
120.7
PTS
11.4
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

San Antonio Spurs are the pick to win with a 90.9% probability. Expected starting five — San Antonio Spurs: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama. Dallas Mavericks: Ryan Nembhard, Max Christie, Cooper Flagg, Khris Middleton, Marvin Bagley III.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The expected total points is 228.13, suggesting a fairly high-scoring game and a brisk pace from both benches. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 17.56, which assigns a large advantage to the home side; if San Antonio occupies that role, they should win comfortably by that margin.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 228.1 Most likely outcome: 228 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (San Antonio Spurs - Dallas Mavericks) 17.6 Most likely outcome: 19 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

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ELO Rating Trends

San Antonio’s power rating has ticked up (+2.6 over five games) while Dallas has edged down (-1.9), indicating momentum favors the Spurs.

San Antonio Spurs

1724.6 +2.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-08 Portland Trail Blazers 1724.6 +4.0
2026-04-06 Philadelphia 76ers 1720.6 +4.5
2026-04-04 Denver Nuggets 1716.1 -12.3
2026-04-02 Los Angeles Clippers 1728.4 +6.4
2026-04-01 Golden State Warriors 1722.0 —

Dallas Mavericks

1349.8 -1.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-08 Phoenix Suns 1349.8 -5.2
2026-04-07 Los Angeles Clippers 1355.0 -4.7
2026-04-05 Los Angeles Lakers 1359.7 +14.6
2026-04-03 Orlando Magic 1345.1 -6.6
2026-03-31 Milwaukee Bucks 1351.7 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

San Antonio Spurs

4-1 in last 5
W W L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Portland Trail Blazers 112 101 +11
Philadelphia 76ers 115 102 +13
Denver Nuggets 134 136 -2
Los Angeles Clippers 118 99 +19
Golden State Warriors 127 113 +14

Dallas Mavericks

1-4 in last 5
L L W L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Phoenix Suns 107 112 -5
Los Angeles Clippers 103 116 -13
Los Angeles Lakers 134 128 +6
Orlando Magic 127 138 -11
Milwaukee Bucks 99 123 -24

Game Analysis

San Antonio enters off two steady wins (112-101 over Portland, 115-102 over Philadelphia) and a narrow high-scoring loss to Denver (134-136). The Spurs look balanced: reliable scoring from Victor Wembanyama (24.8 in the sample) and complementary contributions from Fox, Castle, Vassell and Champagnie. Dallas is coming off two losses (107-112 to Phoenix, 103-116 to the Clippers) sandwiched around a big offensive night in a 134-128 win over the Lakers, showing inconsistency on both ends. Looking at the projected starters, the Spurs average an offensive rating of 118.22, a defensive rating of 109.56 and an average 17.02 points made per starter — strong on both ends. The Mavericks’ starting five average an offensive rating of 108.84, a defensive rating of 119.60 and 12.18 points made per starter, indicating offensive limitations and weaker team defense. That gap in defensive footing and scoring depth points clearly toward San Antonio.

Final Prediction

San Antonio’s combination of higher offensive efficiency, significantly better team defense and recent momentum explains the edge. Watch whether the Mavericks can limit Wembanyama and contain the Spurs’ balanced scoring — that matchup will decide how wide the final margin becomes.

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