San Antonio Spurs vs Portland Trail Blazers Prediction
NBA 2025-2026 · 2026-04-19
San Antonio Spurs
Home Team
79.4%
VS
Portland Trail Blazers
Away Team
20.6%
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AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME San Antonio Spurs
De'Aaron Fox
PTS
19.8
REB
3.9
AST
6.7
3PM
2.1
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Stephon Castle
PTS
18.8
REB
6.5
AST
8.5
3PM
1.1
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Devin Vassell
PTS
14.8
REB
4.3
AST
2.6
3PM
2.4
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Julian Champagnie
PTS
11.6
REB
5.7
AST
1.9
3PM
2.2
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Victor Wembanyama
PTS
26.8
REB
11.8
AST
3.9
3PM
1.9
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AWAY Portland Trail Blazers
Jrue Holiday
PTS
17.0
REB
5.0
AST
6.4
3PM
2.6
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Scoot Henderson
PTS
14.7
REB
3.3
AST
3.7
3PM
2.0
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Deni Avdija
PTS
25.2
REB
7.0
AST
6.6
3PM
2.0
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Toumani Camara
PTS
13.1
REB
4.7
AST
1.7
3PM
2.7
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Donovan Clingan
PTS
11.2
REB
11.4
AST
1.4
3PM
1.1
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
De'Aaron Fox
OR
118.2
DR
112.9
PTS
18.6
VS
Jrue Holiday
OR
116.0
DR
115.9
PTS
16.3
SG
Stephon Castle
OR
116.9
DR
111.5
PTS
16.6
VS
Scoot Henderson
OR
108.4
DR
114.3
PTS
14.2
SF
Devin Vassell
OR
117.2
DR
113.8
PTS
13.9
VS
Deni Avdija
OR
116.8
DR
115.2
PTS
24.2
PF
Julian Champagnie
OR
118.5
DR
111.7
PTS
11.1
VS
Toumani Camara
OR
113.6
DR
116.2
PTS
13.4
C
Victor Wembanyama
OR
121.0
DR
99.4
PTS
25.0
VS
Donovan Clingan
OR
129.7
DR
110.0
PTS
12.1
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
The San Antonio Spurs are projected to win (79.4% probability). Expected starting fives — San Antonio Spurs: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama; Portland Trail Blazers: Jrue Holiday, Scoot Henderson, Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara, Donovan Clingan.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 232.75 points, indicating a game that should play at a fairly high pace with scoring opportunities on both ends. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 9.94, giving nearly a 10-point edge to the home side and a sizable cushion for the favored team.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
232.8
Most likely outcome: 232 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (San Antonio Spurs - Portland Trail Blazers)
9.9
Most likely outcome: 10 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
San Antonio’s power rating has dipped slightly over the last five games while Portland’s has trended upward.
San Antonio Spurs
1713.3
-2.8 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Denver Nuggets | 1713.3 | -13.1 |
| 2026-04-10 | Dallas Mavericks | 1726.4 | +1.8 |
| 2026-04-08 | Portland Trail Blazers | 1724.6 | +4.0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1720.6 | +4.5 |
| 2026-04-04 | Denver Nuggets | 1716.1 | - |
Portland Trail Blazers
1524.0
+5.9 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Sacramento Kings | 1524.0 | +5.1 |
| 2026-04-10 | Los Angeles Clippers | 1518.9 | +12.0 |
| 2026-04-08 | San Antonio Spurs | 1506.9 | -4.0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Denver Nuggets | 1510.9 | -7.2 |
| 2026-04-02 | New Orleans Pelicans | 1518.1 | - |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form: Last 5 Games
San Antonio Spurs
3-2 in last 5
L
W
W
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Nuggets | 118 | 128 | -10 | |
| Dallas Mavericks | 139 | 120 | +19 | |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 112 | 101 | +11 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 115 | 102 | +13 | |
| Denver Nuggets | 134 | 136 | -2 |
Portland Trail Blazers
3-2 in last 5
W
W
L
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento Kings | 122 | 110 | +12 | |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 116 | 97 | +19 | |
| San Antonio Spurs | 101 | 112 | -11 | |
| Denver Nuggets | 132 | 137 | -5 | |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 118 | 106 | +12 |
Game Analysis
Over their last three games San Antonio is 2-1 (wins over Dallas 139-120 and Portland 112-101, loss to Denver 118-128), showing they can score in bunches but can also concede points in spurts. Portland is also 2-1 (wins over Sacramento 122-110 and LA Clippers 116-97, loss at San Antonio 101-112), coming in with confidence after two solid wins but still vulnerable against San Antonio’s length and spacing.
Looking at the starting units, San Antonio’s five average an offensive rating of 118.36, a defensive rating of 109.86, and 17.04 points made per player; Portland’s starters average an offensive rating of 116.9, a defensive rating of 114.32, and 16.04 points made per player. The Spurs’ edge is most notable on defense (109.86 vs 114.32) and in scoring balance centered on Victor Wembanyama’s 25.0 average.
Final Prediction
The Spurs’ stronger two-way profile among starters and recent head-to-head win give them the clear edge in this matchup. Watch Victor Wembanyama’s impact inside and how Portland tries to counter with Donovan Clingan’s efficiency — that duel will likely decide the game flow.
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