NBA 2025-2026: Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Minnesota Timberwolves

Home Team
50.0%
VS

San Antonio Spurs

Away Team
50.0%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Minnesota Timberwolves
PTS 7.1 REB 2.9 AST 4.0 3PM 1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 23.3 REB 4.7 AST 3.0 3PM 2.5
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PTS 16.7 REB 5.3 AST 2.8 3PM 1.0
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PTS 22.5 REB 7.2 AST 4.6 3PM 1.5
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PTS 10.7 REB 11.2 AST 1.9 3PM 0.0
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AWAY San Antonio Spurs
PTS 18.8 REB 3.5 AST 5.7 3PM 1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 18.8 REB 4.5 AST 6.2 3PM 1.3
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 13.3 REB 4.0 AST 2.6 3PM 2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 10.5 REB 4.7 AST 1.6 3PM 2.3
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 22.8 REB 11.6 AST 3.0 3PM 1.5
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Mike Conley
OR
117.2
DR
114.5
PTS
4.5
VS
De'Aaron Fox
OR
118.0
DR
112.4
PTS
18.5
SG
Anthony Edwards
OR
115.3
DR
115.0
PTS
27.8
VS
Stephon Castle
OR
117.1
DR
111.0
PTS
16.9
SF
Jaden McDaniels
OR
114.4
DR
115.0
PTS
15.0
VS
Devin Vassell
OR
116.5
DR
112.8
PTS
13.8
PF
Julius Randle
OR
115.3
DR
113.7
PTS
20.9
VS
Julian Champagnie
OR
121.0
DR
111.0
PTS
11.1
C
Rudy Gobert
OR
128.2
DR
109.2
PTS
10.6
VS
Victor Wembanyama
OR
120.6
DR
98.6
PTS
24.5
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Minnesota Timberwolves are the pick with a 50.0% probability of winning. Expected starting five — Minnesota: Mike Conley, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert. San Antonio: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a relatively high-scoring affair with a combined total of 221.61 points, suggesting a borderline fast pace and plenty of scoring opportunities. The projected spread (Home - Away) is -3.58, which gives the away team a 3.58-point edge. Note: the win probability and the spread come from two different models — one predicts the game winner probability and the other predicts point differential — so they can point in different directions; both are presented for transparency.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 221.6 Most likely outcome: 221 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Minnesota Timberwolves - San Antonio Spurs) -3.6 Most likely outcome: -4 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams show rising momentum over the last five games (Minnesota +6.9, San Antonio +6.7).

Minnesota Timberwolves

1595.5 +6.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-05-06 San Antonio Spurs 1595.5 -8.6
2026-05-04 San Antonio Spurs 1604.1 +12.8
2026-04-30 Denver Nuggets 1591.3 +11.8
2026-04-27 Denver Nuggets 1579.5 -9.1
2026-04-25 Denver Nuggets 1588.6 —

San Antonio Spurs

1716.5 +6.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-05-06 Minnesota Timberwolves 1716.5 +8.5
2026-05-04 Minnesota Timberwolves 1708.0 -12.7
2026-04-28 Portland Trail Blazers 1720.7 +4.7
2026-04-26 Portland Trail Blazers 1716.0 +6.2
2026-04-24 Portland Trail Blazers 1709.8 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Minnesota Timberwolves

3-2 in last 5
L W W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
San Antonio Spurs 95 133 -38
San Antonio Spurs 104 102 +2
Denver Nuggets 110 98 +12
Denver Nuggets 113 125 -12
Denver Nuggets 112 96 +16

San Antonio Spurs

4-1 in last 5
W L W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Minnesota Timberwolves 133 95 +38
Minnesota Timberwolves 102 104 -2
Portland Trail Blazers 114 95 +19
Portland Trail Blazers 114 93 +21
Portland Trail Blazers 120 108 +12

Game Analysis

Over the last three games Minnesota is 2-1, beating San Antonio 104-102 and Denver 110-98 but suffering a lopsided 95-133 loss to San Antonio in the most recent meeting. San Antonio is also 2-1, with the 133-95 win over Minnesota and a 114-95 win over Portland offset by the 102-104 loss to Minnesota. Those results point to a volatile matchup where either team can surge. Looking at the projected starting fives, Minnesota’s five average an offensive rating of 118.08, defensive rating of 113.48, and 15.76 points made per starter. San Antonio’s starters average an offensive rating of 118.64, defensive rating of 109.16, and 16.96 points made per starter. San Antonio’s starting unit offers a slight offensive edge and a clearer defensive advantage on paper, while Minnesota leans on high-end individual pieces like Anthony Edwards (27.8 PPG) and Rudy Gobert (ORTG 128.2).

Final Prediction

Minnesota’s edge comes from matchup pieces and recent bounce-back wins that keep them competitive despite San Antonio’s stronger starting-five defense. Key factor to watch: the Gobert — Wembanyama matchup and how each big man impacts rim protection and interior scoring.

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