NBA 2025-2026: Los Angeles Lakers vs Oklahoma City Thunder: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Los Angeles Lakers
Home Team
42.3%
VS
Oklahoma City Thunder
Away Team
57.7%
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HOME Los Angeles Lakers
Marcus Smart
PTS
12.3
REB
4.1
AST
4.3
3PM
2.0
Distribution (PDF)
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Austin Reaves
PTS
23.7
REB
4.9
AST
5.3
3PM
2.2
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LeBron James
PTS
23.4
REB
6.0
AST
6.8
3PM
1.7
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Rui Hachimura
PTS
12.7
REB
4.3
AST
1.6
3PM
2.0
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Deandre Ayton
PTS
13.2
REB
10.2
AST
1.2
3PM
0.0
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AWAY Oklahoma City Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
PTS
28.1
REB
4.4
AST
6.2
3PM
1.5
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Ajay Mitchell
PTS
15.8
REB
3.8
AST
4.1
3PM
1.4
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Luguentz Dort
PTS
6.8
REB
3.3
AST
1.4
3PM
2.1
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Chet Holmgren
PTS
16.3
REB
8.4
AST
1.6
3PM
1.2
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Isaiah Hartenstein
PTS
8.1
REB
9.0
AST
2.6
3PM
0.0
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
Marcus Smart
OR
106.1
DR
114.7
PTS
9.9
VS
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OR
135.4
DR
108.4
PTS
31.0
SG
Austin Reaves
OR
120.2
DR
117.3
PTS
23.0
VS
Ajay Mitchell
OR
121.1
DR
108.0
PTS
13.8
SF
LeBron James
OR
117.7
DR
114.8
PTS
21.2
VS
Luguentz Dort
OR
104.9
DR
111.4
PTS
8.2
PF
Rui Hachimura
OR
118.2
DR
118.9
PTS
12.0
VS
Chet Holmgren
OR
126.0
DR
102.9
PTS
17.3
C
Deandre Ayton
OR
123.6
DR
114.4
PTS
12.3
VS
Isaiah Hartenstein
OR
128.6
DR
102.8
PTS
9.3
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Oklahoma City Thunder are favored to win (57.7% probability).
Expected starting five — Los Angeles Lakers: Marcus Smart, Austin Reaves, LeBron James, Rui Hachimura, Deandre Ayton; Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ajay Mitchell, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The projected combined total is 214.7 points, suggesting a moderately fast game with both teams capable of scoring in transition and in half-court sets. The expected spread of -3.63 (home - away) implies the visiting Thunder are about 3.6 points better on the numbers, giving Oklahoma City a clear edge rather than the home side.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
214.7
Most likely outcome: 214 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Los Angeles Lakers - Oklahoma City Thunder)
-3.6
Most likely outcome: -4 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
The Lakers’ power rating has slipped by 14.6 over five games while the Thunder’s has climbed by 24.2, indicating rising momentum for Oklahoma City.
Los Angeles Lakers
1609.5
-14.6 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1609.5 | -7.0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1616.5 | -7.2 |
| 2026-05-01 | Houston Rockets | 1623.7 | +11.5 |
| 2026-04-29 | Houston Rockets | 1612.2 | -11.9 |
| 2026-04-26 | Houston Rockets | 1624.1 | — |
Oklahoma City Thunder
1736.9
+24.2 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1736.9 | +7.0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1729.9 | +7.2 |
| 2026-04-27 | Phoenix Suns | 1722.7 | +4.8 |
| 2026-04-25 | Phoenix Suns | 1717.9 | +5.2 |
| 2026-04-22 | Phoenix Suns | 1712.7 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Los Angeles Lakers
1-4 in last 5
L
L
W
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 107 | 125 | -18 | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 90 | 108 | -18 | |
| Houston Rockets | 98 | 78 | +20 | |
| Houston Rockets | 93 | 99 | -6 | |
| Houston Rockets | 96 | 115 | -19 |
Oklahoma City Thunder
5-0 in last 5
W
W
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Lakers | 125 | 107 | +18 | |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 108 | 90 | +18 | |
| Phoenix Suns | 131 | 122 | +9 | |
| Phoenix Suns | 121 | 109 | +12 | |
| Phoenix Suns | 120 | 107 | +13 |
Game Analysis
The Thunder are rolling — three straight wins, including two recent victories over the Lakers (125-107 and 108-90) and a 131-122 win over Phoenix — while the Lakers are 1-2 in their last three, with both losses coming to Oklahoma City and a 98-78 rebound win over Houston. That head-to-head trend favors the Thunder’s confidence and matchup execution.
Looking at the expected starters, Los Angeles’ five average an offensive rating of 117.16 and a defensive rating of 116.02 with 15.68 average points made per starter; Oklahoma City’s five average a 123.20 offensive rating and a 106.70 defensive rating with 15.92 points made per starter. The Thunder’s higher offense and markedly better defense among their projected starters help explain the matchup advantage.
Final Prediction
Oklahoma City’s recent form, superior two-way numbers among starters, and comfortable wins over the Lakers give them the edge. Watch Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — his 31.0 scoring average and 135.4 offensive rating will be the determining factor.
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