NBA 2025-2026: Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Oklahoma City Thunder

Home Team
77.4%
VS

San Antonio Spurs

Away Team
22.6%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Oklahoma City Thunder
PTS 29.1 REB 4.5 AST 6.8 3PM 1.4
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.6 REB 4.5 AST 3.8 3PM 0.7
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PTS 6.2 REB 3.8 AST 1.3 3PM 1.7
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PTS 15.2 REB 8.0 AST 1.4 3PM 0.9
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PTS 8.4 REB 9.3 AST 3.3 3PM 0.0
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AWAY San Antonio Spurs
PTS 16.9 REB 4.3 AST 5.7 3PM 1.5
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PTS 18.7 REB 5.3 AST 6.5 3PM 1.2
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PTS 13.5 REB 4.3 AST 2.3 3PM 2.4
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PTS 10.5 REB 5.1 AST 1.6 3PM 2.3
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PTS 24.9 REB 10.7 AST 3.2 3PM 1.5
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OR
134.1
DR
108.8
PTS
30.6
VS
De'Aaron Fox
OR
118.0
DR
112.1
PTS
18.5
SG
Jalen Williams
OR
118.4
DR
109.6
PTS
17.1
VS
Stephon Castle
OR
117.2
DR
111.0
PTS
17.1
SF
Luguentz Dort
OR
106.1
DR
111.7
PTS
7.9
VS
Devin Vassell
OR
117.4
DR
112.5
PTS
13.9
PF
Chet Holmgren
OR
125.9
DR
103.8
PTS
17.0
VS
Julian Champagnie
OR
120.0
DR
110.7
PTS
10.9
C
Isaiah Hartenstein
OR
126.3
DR
103.4
PTS
9.2
VS
Victor Wembanyama
OR
120.8
DR
99.0
PTS
24.7
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Oklahoma City Thunder are the pick to win (77.4% probability). Expected starting fives — Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein. San Antonio Spurs: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 217.88 points, suggesting a reasonably high-scoring game and a solid offensive pace from both teams. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 7.16, meaning the home side is projected to have about a 7.2-point advantage.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 217.9 Most likely outcome: 217 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Oklahoma City Thunder - San Antonio Spurs) 7.2 Most likely outcome: 7 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Oklahoma City’s power rating has slipped slightly over the last five games (net -2.9) while San Antonio’s has inched up (+2.9), so Oklahoma City is mildly trending down and San Antonio mildly up.

Oklahoma City Thunder

1748.3 -2.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-05-24 San Antonio Spurs 1748.3 -12.2
2026-05-22 San Antonio Spurs 1760.5 +11.0
2026-05-20 San Antonio Spurs 1749.5 +9.9
2026-05-18 San Antonio Spurs 1739.6 -11.6
2026-05-11 Los Angeles Lakers 1751.2 —

San Antonio Spurs

1730.2 +2.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-05-24 Oklahoma City Thunder 1730.2 +12.2
2026-05-22 Oklahoma City Thunder 1718.0 -11.0
2026-05-20 Oklahoma City Thunder 1729.0 -9.8
2026-05-18 Oklahoma City Thunder 1738.8 +11.5
2026-05-15 Minnesota Timberwolves 1727.3 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Oklahoma City Thunder

3-2 in last 5
L W W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
San Antonio Spurs 82 103 -21
San Antonio Spurs 123 108 +15
San Antonio Spurs 122 113 +9
San Antonio Spurs 115 122 -7
Los Angeles Lakers 115 110 +5

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 in last 5
W L L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Oklahoma City Thunder 103 82 +21
Oklahoma City Thunder 108 123 -15
Oklahoma City Thunder 113 122 -9
Oklahoma City Thunder 122 115 +7
Minnesota Timberwolves 139 109 +30

Game Analysis

Over their last three meetings the Thunder are 2-1 (wins 123-108 and 122-113, loss 82-103) while the Spurs are 1-2 in the same stretch. Oklahoma City’s two recent wins show they can score in bunches, but the 82-point outing is a reminder of offensive volatility. San Antonio beat OKC once by 103-82, but lost the two other games by double digits, indicating inconsistency on offense and defense. Looking at the expected starters, Oklahoma City’s five average an offensive rating of 122.16 and a defensive rating of 107.46 with combined average points made 81.8 (16.36 per starter). San Antonio’s starters average an offensive rating of 118.68 and defensive rating of 109.06 with combined average points made 85.1 (17.02 per starter). The Thunder’s starting five bring a higher combined efficiency on both ends, while the Spurs’ unit scores slightly more per player.

Final Prediction

The Thunder get the edge because their expected starting unit is more efficient offensively (122.16 vs 118.68) and defensively (107.46 vs 109.06), underpinning the 77.4% projection. Key factor to watch: how effectively Oklahoma City contains Victor Wembanyama and whether Shai Gilgeous-Alexander can sustain his scoring (30.6) against San Antonio’s interior defense.

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