Charlotte Hornets vs Philadelphia 76ers Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-10-31

Charlotte Hornets

Home Team
25.7%
VS

Philadelphia 76ers

Away Team
74.3%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors Philadelphia 76ers

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Starting five +26.9 Philadelphia 76ers
Home-court advantage +7.6 Charlotte Hornets
Season record & ratings +2.9 Philadelphia 76ers
Recent team form +1.7 Philadelphia 76ers
Home/road record +1.4 Philadelphia 76ers

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 74% for Philadelphia 76ers. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Charlotte Hornets
PTS 25.2 REB 6.8 AST 2.6 3PM 3.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 14.5 REB 4.5 AST 4.9 3PM 1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 9.3 REB 10.5 AST 2.2 3PM 0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.5 REB 9.1 AST 2.2 3PM 2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 7.5 REB 3.6 AST 2.9 3PM 1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Philadelphia 76ers
PTS 5.4 REB 3.7 AST 1.3 3PM 1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.9 REB 6.2 AST 3.2 3PM 1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 15.5 REB 6.6 AST 5.3 3PM 1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 23.3 REB 4.9 AST 3.6 3PM 2.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 10.7 REB 7.1 AST 2.2 3PM 1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Brandon Miller
OR
93.0
DR
108.7
PTS
24.5
VS
Dean Wade
OR
149.0
DR
107.0
PTS
3.5
SG
Dennis Schröder
OR
98.2
DR
112.5
PTS
13.0
VS
Jaylen Brown
OR
102.2
DR
105.4
PTS
20.6
SF
Moussa Diabaté
OR
125.0
DR
105.8
PTS
9.3
VS
LeBron James
OR
108.0
DR
100.4
PTS
16.4
PF
Naz Reid
OR
96.2
DR
105.5
PTS
16.2
VS
Tyrese Maxey
OR
112.8
DR
105.0
PTS
28.2
C
Sion James
OR
84.7
DR
113.2
PTS
3.7
VS
VJ Edgecombe
OR
100.6
DR
101.6
PTS
11.6
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Philadelphia is favored to win, with a 74% chance according to the forecast. Charlotte is expected to start Brandon Miller, Dennis Schröder, Moussa Diabaté, Naz Reid and Sion James, while Philadelphia is expected to start Dean Wade, Jaylen Brown, LeBron James, Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected total is 207 points, pointing to a relatively low-scoring game. Philadelphia is favored by about six, a solid but not overwhelming margin.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 206.5 Most likely outcome: 206 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Charlotte Hornets - Philadelphia 76ers) -5.5 Most likely outcome: -6 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Philadelphia’s rating has been rising over the last five games, while Charlotte’s has edged down.

Charlotte Hornets

1493.5 -2.3 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-10-30 Washington Wizards 1493.5 -11.3
2026-10-28 Detroit Pistons 1504.8 -9.9
2026-10-26 Washington Wizards 1514.7 +10.1
2026-10-24 Miami Heat 1504.6 +8.8
2026-10-23 Atlanta Hawks 1495.8 -

Philadelphia 76ers

1535.5 +15.1 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-10-30 New York Knicks 1535.5 +8.4
2026-10-28 Indiana Pacers 1527.1 +9.9
2026-10-25 Detroit Pistons 1517.2 -11.7
2026-10-24 Milwaukee Bucks 1528.9 +8.5
2026-10-22 Cleveland Cavaliers 1520.4 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Charlotte Hornets

2-3 in last 5
L L W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Washington Wizards 79 95 -16
Detroit Pistons 89 97 -8
Washington Wizards 110 103 +7
Miami Heat 115 110 +5
Atlanta Hawks 81 128 -47

Philadelphia 76ers

4-1 in last 5
W W L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
New York Knicks 98 93 +5
Indiana Pacers 114 109 +5
Detroit Pistons 93 106 -13
Milwaukee Bucks 127 116 +11
Cleveland Cavaliers 114 106 +8

Game Analysis

The expected starting groups are the clearest separator in the forecast. Philadelphia has several starters averaging double figures, led by Maxey at 28 points per game, while Miller is Charlotte’s leading scorer at 25. That gives the 76ers more scoring options in the projected lineup. Home court is a meaningful counterweight for Charlotte, but the recent form favors Philadelphia: it has won two straight, while the Hornets have dropped their last two. Those results support the ratings trend, though the forecast’s main distinction remains the projected lineups.

Final Prediction

Charlotte’s best route to an upset is for Miller to lead a stronger scoring night than the Hornets have managed in their recent losses. Home court could help, but Philadelphia’s multiple scoring threats make that a demanding task.

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