Charlotte Hornets vs Detroit Pistons Prediction
NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-02
Charlotte Hornets
Home Team
35.7%
VS
Detroit Pistons
Away Team
64.3%
Why the Model Favors Detroit Pistons
The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.
Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 64% for Detroit Pistons. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →
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Set it upPlayer Projections
AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME Charlotte Hornets
Brandon Miller
PTS
23.5
REB
6.4
AST
2.9
3PM
3.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Coby White
PTS
4.0
REB
2.4
AST
0.9
3PM
0.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Dennis Schröder
PTS
12.2
REB
4.0
AST
5.0
3PM
1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Moussa Diabaté
PTS
7.8
REB
9.9
AST
2.4
3PM
0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Naz Reid
PTS
14.5
REB
8.2
AST
2.2
3PM
2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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AWAY Detroit Pistons
Ausar Thompson
PTS
9.5
REB
6.6
AST
4.6
3PM
0.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Cade Cunningham
PTS
21.3
REB
5.5
AST
6.2
3PM
2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Duncan Robinson
PTS
14.9
REB
3.2
AST
2.0
3PM
3.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
John Collins
PTS
8.8
REB
6.2
AST
1.0
3PM
1.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Paul Reed
PTS
12.4
REB
6.9
AST
2.2
3PM
0.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Brandon Miller
OR
96.6
DR
110.1
PTS
24.4
VS
Ausar Thompson
OR
106.2
DR
102.0
PTS
8.8
SG
Coby White
OR
0.0
DR
0.0
PTS
0.0
VS
Cade Cunningham
OR
109.2
DR
104.0
PTS
22.2
SF
Dennis Schröder
OR
93.0
DR
115.0
PTS
11.7
VS
Duncan Robinson
OR
120.2
DR
104.8
PTS
16.8
PF
Moussa Diabaté
OR
132.3
DR
108.0
PTS
9.4
VS
John Collins
OR
94.3
DR
105.2
PTS
9.2
C
Naz Reid
OR
94.9
DR
108.4
PTS
15.9
VS
Paul Reed
OR
123.5
DR
101.5
PTS
13.8
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Detroit is favored to win at 64%, a clear lean but not a decisive one. Charlotte is expected to start Brandon Miller, Coby White, Dennis Schröder, Moussa Diabaté and Naz Reid, while Detroit’s expected five is Ausar Thompson, Cade Cunningham, Duncan Robinson, John Collins and Paul Reed.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The projection is 205 combined points, with Detroit by about two. That points to a close, relatively low-scoring game rather than a comfortable win.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
204.9
Most likely outcome: 204 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Charlotte Hornets - Detroit Pistons)
-2.2
Most likely outcome: -3 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Download Probability Data
Full distributions as structured data (JSON or CSV)
ELO Rating Trends
Detroit’s rating is rising, up 18.8 points across its last five games, while Charlotte’s is falling, down 20.5.
Charlotte Hornets
1484.1
-20.5 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-31 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1484.1 | -9.4 |
| 2026-10-30 | Washington Wizards | 1493.5 | -11.3 |
| 2026-10-28 | Detroit Pistons | 1504.8 | -9.9 |
| 2026-10-26 | Washington Wizards | 1514.7 | +10.1 |
| 2026-10-24 | Miami Heat | 1504.6 | - |
Detroit Pistons
1539.9
+18.8 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Brooklyn Nets | 1539.9 | +9.6 |
| 2026-10-28 | Charlotte Hornets | 1530.3 | +9.8 |
| 2026-10-27 | New York Knicks | 1520.5 | -12.4 |
| 2026-10-25 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1532.9 | +11.8 |
| 2026-10-23 | Miami Heat | 1521.1 | - |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form: Last 5 Games
Charlotte Hornets
2-3 in last 5
L
L
L
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia 76ers | 104 | 109 | -5 | |
| Washington Wizards | 79 | 95 | -16 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 89 | 97 | -8 | |
| Washington Wizards | 110 | 103 | +7 | |
| Miami Heat | 115 | 110 | +5 |
Detroit Pistons
4-1 in last 5
W
W
L
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooklyn Nets | 110 | 94 | +16 | |
| Charlotte Hornets | 97 | 89 | +8 | |
| New York Knicks | 97 | 111 | -14 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 106 | 93 | +13 | |
| Miami Heat | 128 | 111 | +17 |
Game Analysis
The biggest separation in the forecast is the expected starting groups, which favor Detroit. Charlotte’s home-court advantage helps narrow the gap, but the Pistons arrive with two wins in their last three, including a 97-89 victory over Charlotte last week.
Miller is Charlotte’s leading projected scorer at 24 points per game, while Cunningham gives Detroit a strong scoring answer at 22. Detroit’s projected scoring is spread across more of its starting group, which could matter if Charlotte struggles to keep pace beyond Miller. The Hornets have lost three straight, and their rating has slipped over the same five-game stretch in which Detroit’s has climbed.
Final Prediction
Charlotte can upset the forecast if Miller turns his scoring advantage into a sustained edge, with the home floor giving the Hornets some room to make that happen.
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