San Antonio Spurs vs Utah Jazz Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-02

San Antonio Spurs

Home Team
80.3%
VS

Utah Jazz

Away Team
19.7%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors San Antonio Spurs

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Starting five +15.1 San Antonio Spurs
Home-court advantage +7.6 San Antonio Spurs
Season record & ratings +4.5 San Antonio Spurs
Home/road record +2.5 San Antonio Spurs
Recent team form +0.6 San Antonio Spurs

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 80% for San Antonio Spurs. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME San Antonio Spurs
PTS 16.0 REB 4.7 AST 6.3 3PM 1.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 12.6 REB 4.1 AST 3.5 3PM 1.6
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Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.0 REB 4.8 AST 4.2 3PM 1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 13.7 REB 5.0 AST 4.7 3PM 2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 25.2 REB 9.4 AST 3.3 3PM 2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Utah Jazz
PTS 12.8 REB 8.3 AST 2.0 3PM 1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 13.6 REB 4.7 AST 2.3 3PM 1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 8.7 REB 7.8 AST 2.1 3PM 0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 20.6 REB 4.5 AST 5.5 3PM 2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 15.0 REB 5.3 AST 1.6 3PM 2.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
De'Aaron Fox
OR
124.0
DR
109.3
PTS
16.5
VS
Ace Bailey
OR
108.7
DR
116.2
PTS
13.3
SG
Devin Vassell
OR
111.2
DR
109.3
PTS
12.0
VS
Darryn Peterson
OR
104.7
DR
118.2
PTS
13.3
SF
Dylan Harper
OR
122.7
DR
111.7
PTS
18.5
VS
Jaxson Hayes
OR
130.4
DR
113.0
PTS
8.0
PF
Stephon Castle
OR
96.8
DR
109.5
PTS
14.5
VS
Keyonte George
OR
108.7
DR
120.5
PTS
21.7
C
Victor Wembanyama
OR
116.0
DR
99.5
PTS
28.0
VS
Lauri Markkanen
OR
105.4
DR
119.4
PTS
15.4
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

San Antonio is the clear favorite, with an 80% chance to win, as the projected starting group and home floor both point its way. The expected starters are De'Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell, Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle and Victor Wembanyama for the Spurs, and Ace Bailey, Darryn Peterson, Jaxson Hayes, Keyonte George and Lauri Markkanen for Utah.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The expected total is 221 points, a moderate-scoring projection, while the expected 14-point Spurs margin points to a comfortable home win rather than a close finish.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 220.6 Most likely outcome: 220 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (San Antonio Spurs - Utah Jazz) 13.7 Most likely outcome: 14 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

San Antonio's rating is rising, up 43 points over five games, while Utah's is falling, down 41.

San Antonio Spurs

1521.6 +43.3 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-10-31 Minnesota Timberwolves 1521.6 +10.0
2026-10-28 Utah Jazz 1511.6 +10.6
2026-10-27 Sacramento Kings 1501.0 +10.3
2026-10-24 Dallas Mavericks 1490.7 +12.4
2026-10-23 Houston Rockets 1478.3 -

Utah Jazz

1457.2 -41.4 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-10-31 Portland Trail Blazers 1457.2 -11.0
2026-10-28 San Antonio Spurs 1468.2 -10.6
2026-10-26 Memphis Grizzlies 1478.8 -9.4
2026-10-25 Los Angeles Lakers 1488.2 -10.4
2026-10-23 New Orleans Pelicans 1498.6 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

San Antonio Spurs

4-1 in last 5
W W W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Minnesota Timberwolves 121 111 +10
Utah Jazz 117 111 +6
Sacramento Kings 130 103 +27
Dallas Mavericks 122 106 +16
Houston Rockets 110 114 -4

Utah Jazz

1-4 in last 5
L L L L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Portland Trail Blazers 90 112 -22
San Antonio Spurs 111 117 -6
Memphis Grizzlies 105 110 -5
Los Angeles Lakers 123 132 -9
New Orleans Pelicans 120 119 +1

Game Analysis

San Antonio's projected five is the clearest personnel advantage. It pairs a high-scoring focal point in Wembanyama, averaging 28 points, with guards whose defensive numbers compare favorably with Utah's starters. The Jazz's projected group shows more defensive vulnerability across the lineup, leaving less margin for error against a Spurs team with several scoring options. Home court adds support, while season and home-road records also favor San Antonio. The Spurs' three-game winning streak includes a 117-111 win over Utah last week. The Jazz have since lost three straight, and their rating has continued to slide. That contrast reinforces the gap in form, even with a total that does not call for a shootout.

Final Prediction

Keyonte George's scoring is Utah's clearest way to challenge the forecast. If he can keep pressuring San Antonio's guards as a scorer, the Jazz may make the Spurs work harder to protect their projected advantage.

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