San Antonio Spurs vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-04

San Antonio Spurs

Home Team
64.4%
VS

Dallas Mavericks

Away Team
35.6%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors San Antonio Spurs

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Home-court advantage +7.6 San Antonio Spurs
Season record & ratings +3.9 San Antonio Spurs
Recent team form +1.4 San Antonio Spurs
Home/road record +0.8 San Antonio Spurs

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 64% for San Antonio Spurs. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME San Antonio Spurs
PTS 14.1 REB 4.6 AST 5.3 3PM 1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 11.9 REB 4.1 AST 3.0 3PM 1.7
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Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.0 REB 5.3 AST 4.6 3PM 1.7
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Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 13.2 REB 4.9 AST 4.2 3PM 2.2
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Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 23.2 REB 9.5 AST 3.4 3PM 2.1
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Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Dallas Mavericks
PTS 7.4 REB 4.1 AST 1.0 3PM 1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 24.2 REB 6.8 AST 6.4 3PM 1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 9.1 REB 8.1 AST 1.9 3PM 0.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 18.6 REB 4.6 AST 4.3 3PM 2.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 13.6 REB 7.5 AST 1.5 3PM 1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
De'Aaron Fox
OR
124.1
DR
108.0
PTS
15.9
VS
Caleb Martin
OR
135.0
DR
114.3
PTS
7.7
SG
Devin Vassell
OR
110.0
DR
108.1
PTS
11.9
VS
Cooper Flagg
OR
120.3
DR
105.7
PTS
25.2
SF
Dylan Harper
OR
124.4
DR
108.4
PTS
18.3
VS
Daniel Gafford
OR
134.4
DR
109.4
PTS
10.1
PF
Stephon Castle
OR
99.0
DR
108.3
PTS
14.7
VS
Kyrie Irving
OR
127.2
DR
111.8
PTS
21.4
C
Victor Wembanyama
OR
109.6
DR
96.7
PTS
25.7
VS
P.J. Washington
OR
99.9
DR
114.0
PTS
13.6
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

San Antonio is favored at 64%, with home court and stronger season ratings supporting a clear but not overwhelming lean. The expected starters are De'Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell, Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle and Victor Wembanyama for San Antonio, and Caleb Martin, Cooper Flagg, Daniel Gafford, Kyrie Irving and P.J. Washington for Dallas.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected total is about 220 points, with San Antonio expected to win by 8. That points to a comfortable Spurs advantage in a game with a moderate scoring total.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 219.8 Most likely outcome: 219 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (San Antonio Spurs - Dallas Mavericks) 8.2 Most likely outcome: 8 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams’ ratings have risen over the last five games, with San Antonio gaining momentum more quickly than Dallas.

San Antonio Spurs

1530.3 +39.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-02 Utah Jazz 1530.3 +8.7
2026-10-31 Minnesota Timberwolves 1521.6 +10.0
2026-10-28 Utah Jazz 1511.6 +10.6
2026-10-27 Sacramento Kings 1501.0 +10.3
2026-10-24 Dallas Mavericks 1490.7 -

Dallas Mavericks

1508.7 +19.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-02 Sacramento Kings 1508.7 -13.6
2026-10-30 Houston Rockets 1522.3 +10.6
2026-10-28 Oklahoma City Thunder 1511.7 +12.6
2026-10-26 Miami Heat 1499.1 +10.0
2026-10-24 San Antonio Spurs 1489.1 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

San Antonio Spurs

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Utah Jazz 119 97 +22
Minnesota Timberwolves 121 111 +10
Utah Jazz 117 111 +6
Sacramento Kings 130 103 +27
Dallas Mavericks 122 106 +16

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 in last 5
L W W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Sacramento Kings 100 115 -15
Houston Rockets 116 111 +5
Oklahoma City Thunder 120 96 +24
Miami Heat 113 109 +4
San Antonio Spurs 106 122 -16

Game Analysis

Home court is the strongest separator in the forecast, with San Antonio also holding the advantage in season record and ratings. The Spurs have won three straight, while Dallas is coming off a 15-point loss to Sacramento. Victor Wembanyama leads the listed starters at 26 points per game, giving San Antonio a prominent scoring option. Cooper Flagg is close behind at 25, and his production, alongside Kyrie Irving’s, gives Dallas a route to challenge the Spurs’ home advantage.

Final Prediction

Dallas can make this a different game if Flagg keeps pace with Wembanyama’s scoring and Irving adds a second major threat. If San Antonio limits that pair, its home-court and recent-form advantages support the forecast.

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