New Orleans Pelicans vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-06

New Orleans Pelicans

Home Team
55.9%
VS

Minnesota Timberwolves

Away Team
44.1%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors New Orleans Pelicans

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Home-court advantage +7.6 New Orleans Pelicans
Starting five +7.4 Minnesota Timberwolves
Recent team form +5.4 New Orleans Pelicans
Home/road record +0.9 Minnesota Timberwolves
Season record & ratings +0.8 New Orleans Pelicans

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 56% for New Orleans Pelicans. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME New Orleans Pelicans
PTS 16.0 REB 6.8 AST 4.8 3PM 1.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 14.3 REB 4.9 AST 4.1 3PM 1.2
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Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 7.8 REB 5.5 AST 1.4 3PM 1.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 13.0 REB 4.5 AST 2.7 3PM 1.6
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Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.8 REB 6.2 AST 2.8 3PM 0.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Minnesota Timberwolves
PTS 8.4 REB 10.5 AST 1.6 3PM 0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 15.2 REB 6.4 AST 4.2 3PM 1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 14.1 REB 6.4 AST 3.2 3PM 1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 11.5 REB 5.8 AST 2.5 3PM 1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 15.5 REB 4.5 AST 5.3 3PM 3.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Dejounte Murray
OR
111.6
DR
111.0
PTS
18.2
VS
Rudy Gobert
OR
103.9
DR
102.4
PTS
7.5
SG
Jeremiah Fears
OR
94.6
DR
114.5
PTS
13.6
VS
Ayo Dosunmu
OR
118.7
DR
106.2
PTS
16.3
SF
Karlo Matković
OR
123.9
DR
107.4
PTS
9.3
VS
Jaden McDaniels
OR
122.4
DR
107.6
PTS
16.4
PF
Trey Murphy III
OR
116.7
DR
117.3
PTS
14.9
VS
Jonathan Kuminga
OR
120.3
DR
105.1
PTS
12.7
C
Zion Williamson
OR
127.5
DR
110.6
PTS
21.5
VS
LaMelo Ball
OR
110.0
DR
103.6
PTS
17.2
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

New Orleans is favored at 56 percent, with a narrow advantage rather than a strong forecast. The Pelicans are expected to start Dejounte Murray, Jeremiah Fears, Karlo Matković, Trey Murphy III and Zion Williamson, while Minnesota is projected to start Rudy Gobert, Ayo Dosunmu, Jaden McDaniels, Jonathan Kuminga and LaMelo Ball.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected total is 231 points, pointing to a high-scoring game. New Orleans is projected to win by about four, a close margin that leaves little room for error.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 231.3 Most likely outcome: 231 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (New Orleans Pelicans - Minnesota Timberwolves) 3.6 Most likely outcome: 3 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams’ ratings have risen over the last five games, with New Orleans gaining momentum more quickly than Minnesota.

New Orleans Pelicans

1502.7 +43.1 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-04 Utah Jazz 1502.7 +8.1
2026-11-02 Memphis Grizzlies 1494.6 +12.1
2026-10-31 Atlanta Hawks 1482.5 +12.5
2026-10-29 Sacramento Kings 1470.0 +10.4
2026-10-28 Denver Nuggets 1459.6 -

Minnesota Timberwolves

1534.5 +20.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-04 Houston Rockets 1534.5 +12.3
2026-11-02 Milwaukee Bucks 1522.2 +8.2
2026-10-31 San Antonio Spurs 1514.0 -10.0
2026-10-30 Los Angeles Clippers 1524.0 +10.2
2026-10-28 Golden State Warriors 1513.8 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

New Orleans Pelicans

4-1 in last 5
W W W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Utah Jazz 120 113 +7
Memphis Grizzlies 135 134 +1
Atlanta Hawks 121 99 +22
Sacramento Kings 132 120 +12
Denver Nuggets 91 104 -13

Minnesota Timberwolves

3-2 in last 5
W W L W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Houston Rockets 117 107 +10
Milwaukee Bucks 112 100 +12
San Antonio Spurs 111 121 -10
Los Angeles Clippers 127 101 +26
Golden State Warriors 114 119 -5

Game Analysis

Home court and stronger recent form are the clearest reasons for the Pelicans’ slight advantage. They have won three straight, including a one-point result against Memphis, while Minnesota has won two of its last three. The Timberwolves’ starting group is the main counterweight, and their rating trend is also moving upward. Zion Williamson stands out as New Orleans’ leading scorer, averaging 22 points, giving the Pelicans a strong scoring option against a Minnesota lineup anchored by Gobert. The recent results suggest both teams can score, but New Orleans has been more consistent across its last three games.

Final Prediction

Minnesota can overturn the forecast if Gobert limits Williamson’s impact near the basket. That matchup could blunt the Pelicans’ clearest scoring advantage and make the Timberwolves’ stronger starting group decisive.

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