Chicago Bulls vs San Antonio Spurs Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-11

Chicago Bulls

Home Team
14.6%
VS

San Antonio Spurs

Away Team
85.4%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors San Antonio Spurs

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Starting five +36.8 San Antonio Spurs
Home-court advantage +7.6 Chicago Bulls
Season record & ratings +7.3 San Antonio Spurs
Home/road record +3.1 San Antonio Spurs
Rest & schedule +1.8 Chicago Bulls

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 85% for San Antonio Spurs. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Chicago Bulls
PTS 18.0 REB 6.0 AST 2.6 3PM 2.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 10.5 REB 7.3 AST 1.7 3PM 1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 12.1 REB 4.8 AST 7.3 3PM 1.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 13.4 REB 4.8 AST 2.3 3PM 1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 18.6 REB 3.4 AST 2.2 3PM 2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY San Antonio Spurs
PTS 14.3 REB 4.7 AST 5.2 3PM 1.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 13.2 REB 4.1 AST 2.9 3PM 1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.6 REB 5.3 AST 4.1 3PM 1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 15.8 REB 5.7 AST 4.7 3PM 1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 28.3 REB 11.3 AST 3.8 3PM 2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Caleb Wilson
OR
97.7
DR
121.6
PTS
19.3
VS
De'Aaron Fox
OR
126.3
DR
108.2
PTS
13.9
SG
Jalen Smith
OR
122.0
DR
122.2
PTS
11.7
VS
Devin Vassell
OR
118.5
DR
108.1
PTS
11.9
SF
Josh Giddey
OR
108.2
DR
126.9
PTS
10.3
VS
Dylan Harper
OR
128.2
DR
110.2
PTS
18.0
PF
Matas Buzelis
OR
105.7
DR
125.7
PTS
13.6
VS
Stephon Castle
OR
103.2
DR
109.5
PTS
14.3
C
Norman Powell
OR
115.1
DR
124.6
PTS
19.2
VS
Victor Wembanyama
OR
124.6
DR
95.5
PTS
30.1
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

San Antonio is favored to win, with an 85 percent chance according to the forecast. Chicago is expected to start Caleb Wilson, Jalen Smith, Josh Giddey, Matas Buzelis and Norman Powell, while San Antonio’s expected starters are De’Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell, Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle and Victor Wembanyama.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected total is 239 points, suggesting a high-scoring game. San Antonio is forecast to win by 13, a comfortable margin rather than a close finish.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 239.1 Most likely outcome: 239 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Chicago Bulls - San Antonio Spurs) -13.3 Most likely outcome: -14 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

San Antonio’s rating has risen over its last five games, while Chicago’s has fallen, leaving the teams moving in opposite directions.

Chicago Bulls

1430.9 -34.4 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-08 Philadelphia 76ers 1430.9 -7.7
2026-11-04 New York Knicks 1438.6 -10.3
2026-11-02 Philadelphia 76ers 1448.9 -7.8
2026-10-30 Boston Celtics 1456.7 -8.6
2026-10-28 New York Knicks 1465.3 -

San Antonio Spurs

1569.9 +39.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-09 Phoenix Suns 1569.9 +10.0
2026-11-07 Portland Trail Blazers 1559.9 +12.5
2026-11-06 Sacramento Kings 1547.4 +8.7
2026-11-04 Dallas Mavericks 1538.7 +8.4
2026-11-02 Utah Jazz 1530.3 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Chicago Bulls

0-5 in last 5
L L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Philadelphia 76ers 121 127 -6
New York Knicks 105 135 -30
Philadelphia 76ers 107 126 -19
Boston Celtics 111 125 -14
New York Knicks 127 133 -6

San Antonio Spurs

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Phoenix Suns 122 96 +26
Portland Trail Blazers 125 103 +22
Sacramento Kings 124 109 +15
Dallas Mavericks 112 111 +1
Utah Jazz 119 97 +22

Game Analysis

The largest separation is in the expected starting groups. San Antonio has a strong scoring option in Wembanyama, whose 30-point average leads the listed starters, and its starting lineup ratings are generally better on both ends. Chicago’s home court helps, but it has conceded at least 126 points in each of its last three games. The recent form also supports the forecast: San Antonio has won three straight, including two victories by more than 20 points, while Chicago has lost three in a row. The Spurs’ season and road performance add to their advantage, though the Bulls’ home setting and a rest edge provide some counterweight.

Final Prediction

Chicago’s clearest route to changing the outlook is to make its home-court advantage count by tightening up defensively. If the Bulls again allow the Spurs to score freely, the projected margin looks plausible.

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