Philadelphia 76ers vs Toronto Raptors Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-12

Philadelphia 76ers

Home Team
55.2%
VS

Toronto Raptors

Away Team
44.8%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors Philadelphia 76ers

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Home-court advantage +7.6 Philadelphia 76ers
Recent team form +3.5 Toronto Raptors
Home/road record +1.5 Philadelphia 76ers
Season record & ratings +0.9 Philadelphia 76ers
Rest & schedule +0.5 Philadelphia 76ers

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 55% for Philadelphia 76ers. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Philadelphia 76ers
PTS 19.7 REB 8.3 AST 3.5 3PM 1.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 20.7 REB 6.3 AST 3.6 3PM 2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.8 REB 6.8 AST 5.9 3PM 1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 23.4 REB 4.1 AST 5.1 3PM 2.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 13.1 REB 5.5 AST 3.1 3PM 1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Toronto Raptors
PTS 10.2 REB 8.2 AST 1.9 3PM 0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.8 REB 4.4 AST 4.4 3PM 2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 12.9 REB 5.2 AST 2.1 3PM 2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 21.5 REB 6.8 AST 3.6 3PM 1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 22.9 REB 9.2 AST 5.6 3PM 1.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Joel Embiid
OR
99.2
DR
108.2
PTS
17.7
VS
Jakob Poeltl
OR
106.4
DR
111.2
PTS
8.2
SG
Jaylen Brown
OR
111.7
DR
110.7
PTS
21.5
VS
Immanuel Quickley
OR
121.9
DR
115.4
PTS
16.7
SF
LeBron James
OR
102.8
DR
107.2
PTS
15.1
VS
Ja'Kobe Walter
OR
120.6
DR
114.5
PTS
11.5
PF
Tyrese Maxey
OR
123.0
DR
111.8
PTS
26.7
VS
RJ Barrett
OR
111.8
DR
116.7
PTS
20.5
C
VJ Edgecombe
OR
111.0
DR
108.4
PTS
12.7
VS
Scottie Barnes
OR
99.8
DR
109.6
PTS
23.5
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Philadelphia is the model’s pick at 55%, a modest lean rather than a strong forecast. The expected starters are Joel Embiid, Jaylen Brown, LeBron James, Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe for Philadelphia, and Jakob Poeltl, Immanuel Quickley, Ja'Kobe Walter, RJ Barrett and Scottie Barnes for Toronto.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected total is about 230 points, pointing to a fairly high-scoring game. Philadelphia is forecast to win by roughly seven, a comfortable margin if that estimate holds.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 229.6 Most likely outcome: 229 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Philadelphia 76ers - Toronto Raptors) 7.3 Most likely outcome: 7 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams’ ratings have fallen over their last five games, with Toronto’s decline sharper than Philadelphia’s.

Philadelphia 76ers

1545.2 -7.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-10 Boston Celtics 1545.2 -12.8
2026-11-08 Chicago Bulls 1558.0 +7.7
2026-11-06 Cleveland Cavaliers 1550.3 -13.4
2026-11-04 Detroit Pistons 1563.7 +11.0
2026-11-02 Chicago Bulls 1552.7 -

Toronto Raptors

1490.6 -22.0 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-11 Boston Celtics 1490.6 -8.7
2026-11-09 Memphis Grizzlies 1499.3 -11.8
2026-11-06 Milwaukee Bucks 1511.1 +9.8
2026-11-04 Denver Nuggets 1501.3 -11.3
2026-11-02 Los Angeles Clippers 1512.6 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Philadelphia 76ers

3-2 in last 5
L W L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Boston Celtics 101 123 -22
Chicago Bulls 127 121 +6
Cleveland Cavaliers 95 119 -24
Detroit Pistons 112 106 +6
Chicago Bulls 126 107 +19

Toronto Raptors

2-3 in last 5
L L W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Boston Celtics 93 98 -5
Memphis Grizzlies 102 118 -16
Milwaukee Bucks 121 107 +14
Denver Nuggets 109 128 -19
Los Angeles Clippers 125 118 +7

Game Analysis

Philadelphia’s home-court advantage is the clearest separator in the forecast, with its home and road results also tilting the balance. Tyrese Maxey is the strongest scoring option among the listed starters, averaging 27 points, giving the 76ers a potent source of offense. Toronto’s recent form is a counterweight, though neither team has won consistently in its last three. The Raptors did keep their latest loss to Boston close, while Philadelphia has taken heavy defeats from Boston and Cleveland. Scottie Barnes, who averages 24 points, gives Toronto a leading scorer capable of keeping the game competitive.

Final Prediction

If Barnes can turn that scoring into enough pressure on Philadelphia’s defense, Toronto could overcome the home-court lean and make the projected margin look too large.

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