Adam Walton vs Daniil Medvedev: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Medvedev arrives as the clear ranking and rating favorite: world No. 7 with an Elo around 1962, compared with Walton at No. 101 and an Elo near 1624. Medvedev’s form index (45.3) is modestly higher than Walton’s (37.0), and both players show zero tournament fatigue entering the match. On clay Medvedev also posts a higher surface strength index (32.67 versus Walton’s 14.37), which underlines his greater comfort on slow courts in the data. Their mean serve indices are very close (Walton 96.14 vs Medvedev 95.25), so there is no significant serve-index gap to favor one server emphatically. However, Walton’s mean return index (92.15) is noticeably stronger than Medvedev’s (86.73), a difference greater than five points that suggests Walton will look to apply pressure on return games. Recent form paints a consistent clay story: Walton is 1–2 in his last three matches, with a straight-sets win over Martin Landaluce in Madrid but losses to Khachanov and Burruchaga, all on clay. Medvedev is 2–1 in his most recent trio of clay outings in Rome, beating Tirante and Landaluce before a long, three-set loss to Jannik Sinner; his matches there included a 157-minute encounter, indicating match sharpness on the surface despite the defeat.