Madrid Spain Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Martin Landaluce vs Adam Walton: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Martin Landaluce

Rank: #99
52%
VS

Adam Walton

Rank: #117
48%
Expected Total Games: 23.4
Predicted Winner: Martin Landaluce

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Player Metrics

Martin Landaluce

Form Index: 69.4
ELO Rating: 1727.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1781.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 57.8
Clay: 36.6
Grass: 40.7
Serve Rating: 55.4
Return Rating: 68.1

Adam Walton

Form Index: 51.0
ELO Rating: 1618.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1602.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 54.1
Clay: 39.4
Grass: 39.3
Serve Rating: 98.1
Return Rating: 90.6

Recent Matches

Martin Landaluce

Adam Walton

  • Last Match: vs Roman Andres Burruchaga (0-2) clay Houston 85 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Jakub Mensik (1-2) hard Miami 112 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Sebastian Baez (2-0) hard Miami 67 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Rinky Hijikata (2-1) hard Miami 144 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Chris Rodesch (2-0) hard Miami 69 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Martin Landaluce
vs
0
Adam Walton
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Madrid, clay, Masters 1000 — a Round of 128 clash between Martin Landaluce and Adam Walton shapes up as a tight, tactical affair. The model gives Martin Landaluce the edge (52.09% vs 47.91%) with a predicted total of about 23.4 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Landaluce arrives ranked 99 with a stronger form index (69.41) and a higher Elo (1727.61) than Walton, who is ranked 117 with a form index of 51.01 and Elo 1618.64. Neither player carries tournament fatigue into this match (both at 0.0 minutes on court). On clay their surface strength indices are modest and similar: Landaluce 36.56, Walton 39.41, so neither has a clear clay-specialist advantage on paper. Serve and return profiles diverge sharply. Walton’s mean serve index (98.05) dwarfs Landaluce’s (55.40) — a difference well over 5 points — and Walton also posts a substantially higher mean return index (90.59) compared with Landaluce (68.07). Those gaps suggest Walton is a bigger, more aggressive server and returner per the indices, but Landaluce’s superior form and Elo underpin the prediction. Recent results reinforce that split: Landaluce beat two top opponents in Miami (wins over Khachanov and Korda) before a straight-sets loss to Musetti on clay in Barcelona; Walton’s last three show more inconsistency — a solid early Miami win over Baez but back-to-back losses in Houston and Miami.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.4 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Martin Landaluce versus Adam Walton. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Martin Landaluce versus Adam Walton. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Martin Landaluce - Adam Walton) +0.7 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Martin Landaluce versus Adam Walton. Positive values indicate Martin Landaluce winning more games, negative values indicate Adam Walton winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Martin Landaluce versus Adam Walton. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction lands at about 13.59 total aces for the match, while the predicted aces balance is influenced by Walton’s very high mean serve index. Expected double faults are 6.08 for the match. On clay, predicted aces tend to be suppressed by the slower surface and higher bounce, although Walton’s serve rating could still lift the predicted aces figure relative to typical clay matches.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.6 Most likely: 13 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 6.1 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Martin Landaluce versus Adam Walton. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Martin Landaluce versus Adam Walton. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Martin Landaluce versus Adam Walton. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Martin Landaluce versus Adam Walton. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Landaluce’s edge comes from current form and a higher Elo despite Walton’s impressive serve/return indices. Watch Walton’s serve as the key factor: if it fires consistently on clay, he can flip the match; if Landaluce controls the return rhythm, the prediction favors him.

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