Basel Switzerland Hard Atp 500 Finals

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Joao Fonseca Prediction

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Rank: #18
53%
VS

Joao Fonseca

Rank: #46
47%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Player Metrics

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Form Index: 66.1
ELO Rating: 1477.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1710.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 426.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.0
Clay: 10.2
Grass: 7.3
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 86.9

Joao Fonseca

Form Index: 55.6
ELO Rating: 1070.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1633.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 210.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.5
Clay: 9.1
Grass: 5.2
Serve Rating: 94.6
Return Rating: 86.5

Recent Matches

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

  • Last Match: vs Ugo Humbert (2-0) hard Basel 80 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Casper Ruud (1-0) hard Basel 57 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Jenson Brooksby (2-1) hard Basel 167 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Lorenzo Sonego (2-0) hard Basel 122 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Raphael Collignon (0-2) hard Brussels 107 min

Joao Fonseca

  • Last Match: vs Jaume Munar (2-0) hard Basel 114 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Denis Shapovalov (2-1) hard Basel 96 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Botic van de Zandschulp (0-2) hard Brussels 122 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Tomas Machac (0-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Miomir Kecmanovic (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
vs
1
Joao Fonseca
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The final match at the ATP 500 tournament in Basel, Switzerland, sees Alejandro Davidovich Fokina facing Joao Fonseca on hard courts. The predicted winner is Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, with a 52.80% chance of victory compared to Fonseca's 47.20%. The anticipated total number of games played in this match is 23.0.

Match Analysis

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina holds a higher rank at 18 compared to Joao Fonseca, who is ranked 46. Fokina's form index of 66.06 suggests that he is performing well at this stage of the tournament, while Fonseca's index of 55.63 indicates slightly less consistency. Fokina's Elo rating of 1477.85 significantly exceeds Fonseca's 1070.75, reflecting a greater overall performance level. In terms of fatigue, Fokina has accumulated 426 minutes on court, while Fonseca has 210, which may impact their stamina as the match progresses. Fokina also has a surface strength index of 12.05, compared to Fonseca's 8.50, indicating a better adaptation to hard surfaces. Notably, Fokina's mean serve index of 96.24 provides him with a robust serving performance, while Fonseca's at 94.57 does not show a substantial difference, with less than 5 points separating them. However, Fokina's mean return index of 86.93 offers him a notable advantage over Fonseca's 86.45. In their recent performances, Fokina has won all three of his last matches in Basel, showcasing strong play against opponents like Ugo Humbert and Casper Ruud. His victories indicate a solid trajectory leading into the final. On the other hand, Fonseca also boasts three wins in his last matches, including a notable victory over Denis Shapovalov, but he did suffer a defeat against Botic van de Zandschulp prior to this tournament.

Final Prediction

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina's higher ranking, superior Elo rating, and strong serve and return statistics provide him with a competitive edge over Joao Fonseca. A key factor to watch during the match will be Fokina’s ability to maintain his serving performance while managing his fatigue, as it will be crucial for his chances of capturing the title.