Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Alejandro Tabilo vs Pablo Carreno Busta Prediction

Alejandro Tabilo

Rank: #30
60%
VS

Pablo Carreno Busta

Rank: #65
40%
Expected Total Games: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Alejandro Tabilo

Why the Model Favors Alejandro Tabilo

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Age +3.8 Alejandro Tabilo
Serve & return game +3.3 Alejandro Tabilo
Fatigue & recent workload +2.3 Alejandro Tabilo
Overall strength +2.0 Alejandro Tabilo
Recent form +1.7 Pablo Carreno Busta

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 60% for Alejandro Tabilo. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Alejandro Tabilo

  • Current #30 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #33 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #39 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #81 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #74 2025-09-29

Pablo Carreno Busta

  • Current #65 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #70 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #92 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #92 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #123 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Alejandro Tabilo

Form Index: 41.5
ELO Rating: 1707.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1730.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 29.2
Clay: 20.7
Grass: 6.1
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 88.3

Pablo Carreno Busta

Form Index: 44.6
ELO Rating: 1676.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1675.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 170.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 21.7
Clay: 21.4
Grass: 9.8
Serve Rating: 95.1
Return Rating: 87.0

Recent Matches

Alejandro Tabilo
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Pablo Carreno Busta
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Alejandro Tabilo
vs
0
Pablo Carreno Busta
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Tabilo is a modest favorite, at 60% to Carreno Busta’s 40%, with 24.0 total games expected. This Round of 64 in Shanghai looks competitive, but Tabilo’s stronger serve-and-return profile gives him the narrow forecast lead.

Match Analysis

Tabilo is ranked 30th, compared with Carreno Busta at 65th, and has the stronger serve-and-return profile. On hard courts, that all-court edge could matter in a match projected to be close and potentially lengthy. Carreno has won two of his last three matches, including his Shanghai victory over Mariano Navone, while Tabilo has one win in his last three. But Carreno needed 170 minutes to beat Navone and has already spent that time on court at this tournament, while Tabilo has played none in Shanghai. That freshness advantage supports the lean toward Tabilo.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.0 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alejandro Tabilo - Pablo Carreno Busta) +1.1 Most likely spread: +1 (Alejandro Tabilo wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Tabilo is projected for 7.5 aces and 1.9 double faults, compared with 3.5 aces and 1.8 double faults for Carreno Busta. Tabilo’s stronger serve profile supports the gap in aces, while the similar double-fault projections suggest little difference in control.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.8 Most likely: 8 aces Per player: Alejandro Tabilo 7.5 + Pablo Carreno Busta 3.5
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.7 Most likely: 2 double faults Per player: Alejandro Tabilo 1.9 + Pablo Carreno Busta 1.8

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Alejandro Tabilo

Expected 7.5 aces

Pablo Carreno Busta

Expected 3.5 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Alejandro Tabilo

Expected 1.9 double faults

Pablo Carreno Busta

Expected 1.8 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

38.3% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Alejandro Tabilo's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (37.9%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Carreno’s recent results give him a route to overturn the forecast if he can carry that form into this match. Tabilo’s freshness is the counterweight.

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