Paris France Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Alejandro Tabilo vs Rafael Jodar Prediction

Alejandro Tabilo

Rank: #30
23%
VS

Rafael Jodar

Rank: #11
77%
Expected Total Games: 25.2
Predicted Winner: Rafael Jodar

Why the Model Favors Rafael Jodar

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +8.3 Rafael Jodar
Recent form +5.0 Rafael Jodar
Surface fit +3.2 Rafael Jodar
Overall strength +3.0 Rafael Jodar
Overall record & opposition quality +2.7 Rafael Jodar

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 77% for Rafael Jodar. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Alejandro Tabilo

  • Current #30 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #26 2026-08-03
  • 6 mo ago #35 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #73 2026-02-02
  • 12 mo ago #89 2025-11-03

Rafael Jodar

  • Current #11 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #15 2026-08-03
  • 6 mo ago #34 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #124 2026-02-02
  • 12 mo ago #166 2025-11-03

Player Metrics

Alejandro Tabilo

Form Index: 31.1
ELO Rating: 1669.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1716.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.5
Clay: 20.7
Grass: 6.2
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 88.2

Rafael Jodar

Form Index: 49.2
ELO Rating: 1912.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1924.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 40.9
Clay: 37.0
Grass: 12.1
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 89.5

Recent Matches

Alejandro Tabilo
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Rafael Jodar
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Alejandro Tabilo
vs
3
Rafael Jodar
Hard
1 - 3
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Rafael Jodar is a strong favourite, taking 77% of the win probability to Alejandro Tabilo’s 23%. The projection is for 25.2 games.

Match Analysis

The biggest separation is Jodar’s stronger recent record against this level of opposition, backed by better current form and a more convincing hard-court profile. He is ranked 11th to Tabilo’s 30th, and also holds the advantage in overall strength and return play. Their recent meeting in Basel is a direct point of reference: Jodar beat Tabilo there in straight sets. Tabilo has lost his last three matches, while Jodar has one win in his last three, including that result. Jodar’s edge is not built on a clear serving gap, so his ability to pressure Tabilo’s service games matters.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.2 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alejandro Tabilo - Rafael Jodar) -3.2 Most likely spread: -4 (Rafael Jodar wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Tabilo is projected for 6.0 aces and 2.0 double faults, while Jodar is forecast for 5.5 aces and 2.1 double faults. Their serve profiles are close, which fits the near-even ace totals, with Tabilo holding a slight projected advantage in aces.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.4 Most likely: 9 aces Per player: Alejandro Tabilo 6.0 + Rafael Jodar 5.5
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.1 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Alejandro Tabilo 2.0 + Rafael Jodar 2.1

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Alejandro Tabilo

Expected 6.0 aces

Rafael Jodar

Expected 5.5 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Alejandro Tabilo

Expected 2.0 double faults

Rafael Jodar

Expected 2.1 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

36.8% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Alejandro Tabilo's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (45.9%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Tabilo’s serve is his best chance to make the forecast less comfortable for Jodar. If it lets him avoid sustained pressure, his chances improve, though Jodar’s stronger return gives him the more reliable path.

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