Stockholm Sweden Hard Atp 250 Semifinals

Alejandro Tabilo vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Prediction

Alejandro Tabilo

Rank: #30
44%
VS

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Rank: #53
56%
Expected Total Games: 25.6
Predicted Winner: Thiago Agustin Tirante

Why the Model Favors Thiago Agustin Tirante

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +3.4 Thiago Agustin Tirante
Recent form +2.9 Alejandro Tabilo
Recent record by level +1.6 Thiago Agustin Tirante
Overall record & opposition quality +1.6 Thiago Agustin Tirante
Head-to-head +1.2 Thiago Agustin Tirante

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 56% for Thiago Agustin Tirante. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Alejandro Tabilo

  • Current #30 2026-11-02
  • 3 mo ago #29 2026-08-10
  • 6 mo ago #35 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #71 2026-02-09
  • 12 mo ago #81 2025-11-10

Thiago Agustin Tirante

  • Current #53 2026-11-02
  • 3 mo ago #50 2026-08-10
  • 6 mo ago #69 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #92 2026-02-09
  • 12 mo ago #98 2025-11-10

Player Metrics

Alejandro Tabilo

Form Index: 37.9
ELO Rating: 1703.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1728.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 287.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 28.1
Clay: 20.7
Grass: 6.2
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 88.3

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Form Index: 38.2
ELO Rating: 1686.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1749.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 273.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 23.6
Clay: 28.7
Grass: 6.2
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 86.2

Recent Matches

Alejandro Tabilo
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

Thiago Agustin Tirante
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

2
Alejandro Tabilo
vs
0
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
2 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

For the Semifinals in Stockholm, Thiago Agustin Tirante is a narrow favorite, at 56% to Alejandro Tabilo’s 44%. The match is projected to reach 25.6 games.

Match Analysis

The strongest tilt toward Tirante comes from the projected serve-and-return balance. Tabilo has won his last two matches in Stockholm, including against Alex Michelsen, and recent form is his clearest counterweight. Tabilo is ranked 30th, above Tirante at 53rd, but the forecast gives Tirante a slight advantage in results against comparable opposition and their previous meetings. Neither player has a substantial form advantage overall, so those smaller edges matter in a close projection.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.6 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alejandro Tabilo - Thiago Agustin Tirante) -0.3 Most likely spread: -1 (Thiago Agustin Tirante wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Tabilo is projected for 7.4 aces and 2.0 double faults, while Tirante is forecast for 10.4 aces and 2.5 double faults. Their serve profiles are close, but the projection expects Tirante to find more aces on the hard court.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.8 Most likely: 15 aces Per player: Alejandro Tabilo 7.4 + Thiago Agustin Tirante 10.4
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Alejandro Tabilo 2.0 + Thiago Agustin Tirante 2.5

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Alejandro Tabilo

Expected 7.4 aces

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Expected 10.4 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Alejandro Tabilo

Expected 2.0 double faults

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Expected 2.5 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

51.5% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Alejandro Tabilo's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (29.6%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Tabilo’s recent wins over Sonego and Michelsen give him a strong basis to overturn the forecast. If that form carries into this match, he can make Tirante’s narrow advantage in the projected serve-and-return exchanges count for less.

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