Rotterdam Netherlands Hard Atp 500 Quarterfinals

Alex de Minaur vs Botic van de Zandschulp: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Alex de Minaur

Rank: #6
70%
VS

Botic van de Zandschulp

Rank: #67
30%
Expected Total Games: 22.6
Predicted Winner: Alex de Minaur

Ranking Trends

Alex de Minaur

  • Current Rank: #6 (2026-02-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #7 (2025-11-10)
  • 6 Months Ago: #8 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #8 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #6 (2025-02-10)

Botic van de Zandschulp

  • Current Rank: #67 (2026-02-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #78 (2025-11-10)
  • 6 Months Ago: #92 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #85 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #85 (2025-02-10)

Player Metrics

Alex de Minaur

Form Index: 75.0
ELO Rating: 4080.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1861.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 161.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 26.4
Clay: 31.3
Grass: 32.7
Serve Rating: 54.1
Return Rating: 34.0

Botic van de Zandschulp

Form Index: 61.5
ELO Rating: 950.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1587.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 204.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.5
Clay: 6.1
Grass: 6.5
Serve Rating: 97.6
Return Rating: 92.0

Recent Matches

Alex de Minaur
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Stan Wawrinka (2-0) hard Rotterdam 69 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Fils (2-0) hard Rotterdam 92 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Bublik (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Frances Tiafoe (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min

Botic van de Zandschulp
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (2-0) hard Rotterdam 109 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Luka Pavlovic (2-0) hard Rotterdam 95 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Ugo Humbert (0-2) hard Montpellier 72 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Novak Djokovic (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Juncheng Shang (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

2
Alex de Minaur
vs
0
Botic van de Zandschulp
Hard
2 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This quarterfinal in Rotterdam (Netherlands) is on indoor hard courts at a 500-level event. The model favors Alex de Minaur as the projected winner — 70.16% to Botic van de Zandschulp’s 29.84% — with an expected total of about 22.64 games in the match, implying a straight-sets outcome is most likely.

Match Analysis

Alex de Minaur comes in as the higher-ranked player (No. 6) with a stronger Elo (4080.22) and a higher form index (75.04) than van de Zandschulp (rank 67, Elo 950.92, form 61.52). De Minaur has spent 161 minutes on court in Rotterdam vs. van de Zandschulp’s 204, so fatigue slightly favors de Minaur. On hard courts de Minaur’s surface strength index (26.43) is modestly higher than van de Zandschulp’s (9.50), suggesting de Minaur is more comfortable on this surface in the available metrics. Serve and return profiles differ markedly: van de Zandschulp’s mean serve index (97.62) is far higher than de Minaur’s (54.14), a gap well over 5 points; likewise his mean return index (91.99) greatly exceeds de Minaur’s (33.98). Those large differentials point to van de Zandschulp being a more extreme server-returner in the dataset, which could produce quick holds and few breaks when he is firing. Over the last three matches de Minaur has beaten Stan Wawrinka and Arthur Fils in Rotterdam (both straight sets) and had a long loss to Carlos Alcaraz at the Australian Open; van de Zandschulp has upset Stefanos Tsitsipas and beaten Luka Pavlovic in Rotterdam (both straight sets) after a prior loss to Ugo Humbert in Montpellier.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.6 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is 10.06 total, and the predicted double faults are 5.63. On medium-paced hard courts, these figures are consistent with a moderate ace count and some risk on second serves. Given van de Zandschulp’s substantially higher serve rating, he is likely to drive much of the predicted aces total, while de Minaur’s lower serve index suggests fewer direct points but more reliance on rallies.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.1 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

De Minaur’s higher rank, superior Elo and fresher legs give him the edge in the model despite van de Zandschulp’s big-serve profile. The key factor to watch is whether van de Zandschulp’s serving and returning spikes can force short service games or if de Minaur’s consistency and movement will neutralize those bursts.

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