Vienna Austria Hard Atp 500 Finals

Alex de Minaur vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction

Alex de Minaur

Rank: #10
21%
VS

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #3
79%
Expected Total Games: 22.5
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

Why the Model Favors Carlos Alcaraz

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +10.1 Carlos Alcaraz
Surface fit +8.2 Carlos Alcaraz
Head-to-head +3.1 Carlos Alcaraz
Recent record by level +3.0 Carlos Alcaraz
Recent form +1.1 Carlos Alcaraz

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 79% for Carlos Alcaraz. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Alex de Minaur

  • Current #10 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #6 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #8 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #6 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #6 2025-10-27

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current #3 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #3 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #2 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #1 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #1 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Alex de Minaur

Form Index: 66.5
ELO Rating: 1968.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1916.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 456.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 48.0
Clay: 30.4
Grass: 34.5
Serve Rating: 95.7
Return Rating: 90.7

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 58.4
ELO Rating: 2250.9
Glicko2 Rating: 2612.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 430.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 61.3
Clay: 95.5
Grass: 97.6
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 91.6

Recent Matches

Alex de Minaur
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Zverev (2-1) hard Vienna 150 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Matteo Berrettini (2-0) hard Vienna 106 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Learner Tien (2-0) hard Vienna 78 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Machac (2-1) hard Vienna 122 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Zverev (0-2) hard Shanghai 77 min

Carlos Alcaraz
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alex de Minaur
vs
2
Carlos Alcaraz
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Carlos Alcaraz is a substantial favourite in the Vienna final, with the forecast giving him 79% to Alex de Minaur’s 21%. It expects 22.5 games, pointing to a competitive-length match despite the gap in win probability.

Match Analysis

The main separation is Alcaraz’s higher overall level and stronger fit on hard courts. He is ranked third to de Minaur’s 10th, and his advantage on this surface is a major reason for the forecast. Both arrive after three wins in Vienna, but Alcaraz has not dropped a set, including in his win over Daniil Medvedev. De Minaur’s run includes a three-set win over Alexander Zverev, a notable result that underlines his ability to challenge a top opponent. Recent results favour Alcaraz, though, as does the broader comparison between them.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.5 Most likely outcome: 21 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alex de Minaur - Carlos Alcaraz) -4.1 Most likely spread: -5 (Carlos Alcaraz wins 5 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Alcaraz is projected for 5.9 aces and 2.3 double faults, while de Minaur is projected for 4.1 aces and 2.2 double faults. Their serve profiles are close, so the expected ace gap points to a small advantage for Alcaraz rather than a major mismatch.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.0 Most likely: 8 aces Per player: Alex de Minaur 4.1 + Carlos Alcaraz 5.9
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Alex de Minaur 2.2 + Carlos Alcaraz 2.3

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Alex de Minaur

Expected 4.1 aces

Carlos Alcaraz

Expected 5.9 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Alex de Minaur

Expected 2.2 double faults

Carlos Alcaraz

Expected 2.3 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

27.7% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Alex de Minaur's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (54.3%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

De Minaur’s route to an upset is to make his strong returning count and put sustained pressure on Alcaraz’s service games. His win over Zverev shows he can make that kind of contest difficult for a top-ranked opponent.

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