Rotterdam Netherlands Hard Atp 500 Finals

Alex de Minaur vs Felix Auger-Aliassime: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Alex de Minaur

Rank: #6
50%
VS

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Rank: #8
50%
Expected Total Games: 23.6
Predicted Winner: Felix Auger-Aliassime

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Ranking Trends

Alex de Minaur

  • Current #6 2026-02-02
  • 3 mo ago #7 2025-11-10
  • 6 mo ago #8 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #8 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #6 2025-02-10

Felix Auger-Aliassime

  • Current #8 2026-02-02
  • 3 mo ago #8 2025-11-10
  • 6 mo ago #28 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #27 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #22 2025-02-10

Player Metrics

Alex de Minaur

Form Index: 71.6
ELO Rating: 4080.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1865.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 417.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 26.4
Clay: 31.3
Grass: 32.7
Serve Rating: 55.5
Return Rating: 35.3

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Form Index: 75.5
ELO Rating: 4062.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1691.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 340.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 28.8
Clay: 31.9
Grass: 32.8
Serve Rating: 98.4
Return Rating: 87.2

Recent Matches

Alex de Minaur
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Ugo Humbert (2-0) hard Rotterdam 92 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (2-1) hard Rotterdam 164 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Stan Wawrinka (2-0) hard Rotterdam 69 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Fils (2-0) hard Rotterdam 92 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min

Felix Auger-Aliassime
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alex de Minaur
vs
1
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This is the Rotterdam final in the Netherlands, a hard-court indoor ATP 500 event. Felix Auger-Aliassime is narrowly favored to win, with a predicted probability of 50.03% versus Alex de Minaur at 49.97%. The model anticipates a tight match of about 23.63 total games.

Match Analysis

Alex de Minaur (rank 6) arrives with a slightly higher Elo (4080.22) but greater cumulative fatigue (417 minutes) than Felix (rank 8, Elo 4062.18, fatigue 340 minutes). De Minaur’s form index sits at 71.57 versus Felix’s 75.52, while both have modest surface strength indices on hard courts (26.43 for De Minaur, 28.85 for Auger-Aliassime). There is a substantial gap in serving and returning: Felix’s mean serve index (98.40) greatly exceeds De Minaur’s (55.46), and his mean return index (87.23) is also much higher than De Minaur’s (35.32), factors likely to shape each set. Over the last three rounds at Rotterdam both players have been consistent winners. De Minaur recorded three straight wins, including a longer 164-minute match against Botic van de Zandschulp and a 92-minute victory over Ugo Humbert, which contributes to his higher minutes-on-court total. Felix has also won three matches without dropping a set in this event, with noticeably shorter recent match durations (54, 104, 90 minutes), suggesting fresher legs entering the final.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.6 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alex de Minaur - Felix Auger-Aliassime) -0.6 Most likely spread: -1 (Felix Auger-Aliassime wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 10.06 total, with an expected double faults figure of 5.63. On a medium-paced hard court, predicted aces are moderate — harder than on clay but less than grass — and the expected double faults reflect some risk from aggressive serving. Given Felix’s markedly higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute a larger share of the predicted aces, which will influence break opportunities and set momentum.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.1 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Felix’s edge comes from superior serve and return metrics and slightly fresher physical state, even though De Minaur holds a marginal Elo and ranking advantage. The key factor to watch is Auger‑Aliassime’s serve/return dominance and whether De Minaur can neutralize it with consistent depth and early returns.

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