Vienna Austria Hard Atp 500 Quarterfinals

Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Berrettini Prediction

Alex de Minaur

Rank: #7
64%
VS

Matteo Berrettini

Rank: #59
36%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Alex de Minaur

Player Metrics

Alex de Minaur

Form Index: 62.6
ELO Rating: 2460.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1795.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 168.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.3
Clay: 27.0
Grass: 28.3
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 87.6

Matteo Berrettini

Form Index: 53.4
ELO Rating: 1478.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1614.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 288.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.1
Clay: 14.5
Grass: 11.8
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 84.0

Recent Matches

Alex de Minaur

  • Last Match: vs Filip Misolic (2-0) hard Vienna 88 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Jurij Rodionov (2-0) hard Vienna 80 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Daniil Medvedev (0-2) hard Shanghai 113 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Nuno Borges (2-0) hard Shanghai 107 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (2-0) hard Shanghai 88 min

Matteo Berrettini

  • Last Match: vs Cameron Norrie (2-1) hard Vienna 196 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Alexei Popyrin (2-0) hard Vienna 92 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Ugo Humbert (0-2) hard Stockholm 92 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Giulio Zeppieri (2-0) hard Stockholm 80 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Adrian Mannarino (0-2) hard Shanghai 112 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alex de Minaur
vs
1
Matteo Berrettini
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the quarterfinals of the ATP 500 tournament in Vienna, Alex de Minaur is set to face Matteo Berrettini on hard courts. With a predicted victory probability of 63.99% for de Minaur compared to 36.01% for Berrettini, the match is expected to be competitive, with a predicted total of 23 games played.

Match Analysis

Alex de Minaur, currently ranked 7th, demonstrates impressive form with a form index of 62.64 and an Elo rating of 2460.91. His cumulative fatigue of 168 minutes suggests he has managed his energy well throughout the tournament. De Minaur's surface strength index stands at 19.32, showcasing his proficiency on hard courts, while his mean serve index of 95.89 and a return index of 87.60 highlight his strong serving and returning capabilities. The difference between his return index and Berrettini's (83.97) indicates a notable advantage in this area. On the other hand, Matteo Berrettini, ranked 59th, has a form index of 53.42 and an Elo rating of 1478. His cumulative fatigue of 288 minutes reflects a heavier workload, which may affect his performance. With a surface strength index of 13.05, he has struggled somewhat on hard courts this season. Berrettini's mean serve index of 96.83 is competitive, but he falls short in the return department compared to de Minaur, which may be crucial in their matchup. Both players have recently performed well, with de Minaur winning his last two matches convincingly, while Berrettini won his last match after a tougher battle in the previous round.

Final Prediction

Alex de Minaur’s superior ranking, form, and particularly his return game provide him with a significant edge going into this quarterfinal clash. A key factor to watch will be the effectiveness of his return against Berrettini's serve, as this could determine the flow of the match and ultimately the outcome.