Cincinnati OH, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Alex de Minaur vs Reilly Opelka Prediction

Alex de Minaur

Rank: #8
69%
VS

Reilly Opelka

Rank: #74
31%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Alex de Minaur

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Ranking Trends

Alex de Minaur

  • Current #8 2025-07-28
  • 3 mo ago #8 2025-05-05
  • 6 mo ago #8 2025-02-03
  • 9 mo ago #8 2024-11-04
  • 12 mo ago #10 2024-08-12

Reilly Opelka

  • Current #74 2025-07-28
  • 3 mo ago #94 2025-05-05
  • 6 mo ago #145 2025-02-03
  • 9 mo ago #295 2024-11-04
  • 12 mo ago #322 2024-08-12

Player Metrics

Alex de Minaur

Form Index: 58.8
ELO Rating: 2685.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1793.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 21.3
Clay: 27.0
Grass: 28.3
Serve Rating: 95.8
Return Rating: 88.3

Reilly Opelka

Form Index: 53.7
ELO Rating: 966.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1670.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 100.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.5
Clay: 3.6
Grass: 5.8
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 82.8

Recent Matches

Alex de Minaur
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Reilly Opelka
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Hugo Dellien (2-0) hard Cincinnati 100 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Learner Tien (0-2) hard Toronto 85 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Machac (2-1) hard Toronto 140 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Ofner (2-0) hard Toronto 115 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Daniil Medvedev (1-2) hard Washington 120 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alex de Minaur
vs
0
Reilly Opelka
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 64 at the Cincinnati Masters 1000 tournament, Alex de Minaur is set to face Reilly Opelka on hard courts in Ohio. The probability of de Minaur winning is projected at 68.93%, while Opelka's chances stand at 31.07%. The predicted total number of games played is estimated to be 23.

Match Analysis

Alex de Minaur, currently ranked 8th, boasts a strong form index of 58.84 and an Elo rating of 2685.77, indicating a solid performance level. His surface strength index of 21.26 suggests he is more adept on hard courts compared to Opelka, who is ranked 74th with a lower form index of 53.67 and a significantly lower Elo rating of 966.84. Notably, de Minaur has a mean serve index of 95.84, while Opelka leads slightly with an index of 97.11. However, de Minaur's mean return index of 88.28 surpasses Opelka's 82.84 by more than 5 points, highlighting his superior return game. In their recent performances, de Minaur faced a challenging match against Ben Shelton, losing in straight sets, but previously secured a win against Frances Tiafoe, suggesting fluctuations in form. Opelka, on the other hand, recently secured a victory over Hugo Dellien in Cincinnati, which could boost his confidence. However, his preceding loss to Learner Tien raises concerns about his consistency.

Final Prediction

De Minaur's overall higher ranking, superior return capability, and less cumulative fatigue provide him with a clear advantage going into this match. A key factor to watch will be de Minaur's ability to neutralize Opelka's serve, which will be critical in determining the match's outcome.

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