Alex de Minaur vs Stan Wawrinka: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

De Minaur arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 6) with a strong form index (74.14) and a very high Elo rating (4080.22). He has logged 92 minutes so far in this tournament, giving him slightly more cumulative court time than Wawrinka (82 minutes). His surface strength index on hard courts (26.43) is notably higher than Wawrinka’s (5.52), indicating a clearer comfort edge on this surface according to the provided metrics. Wawrinka’s surface numbers are lower overall, and his Elo rating (512.17) is far beneath de Minaur’s. However, Wawrinka shows exceptional raw serving and returning indicators: a mean serve index of 97.08 versus de Minaur’s 53.26 (a difference >5 points), and a mean return index of 89.02 versus de Minaur’s 32.54 (also >5). Those large gaps suggest Wawrinka can still influence short points with his serve and generate breaks with an effective return when he’s sharp. Recent form is mixed for both. De Minaur beat Arthur Fils in Rotterdam (2-0, 92 minutes), and at the Australian Open he beat Alexander Bublik (3-0) but fell to Carlos Alcaraz (0-3) in a long match. Wawrinka has two recent straight-set wins (Thijs Boogaard in Rotterdam and Hamad Medjedovic in Montpellier) and a loss to Felix Auger‑Aliassime in Montpellier (0-2).