Dallas TX, U.S.A. Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Alex Michelsen vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Alex Michelsen

Rank: #41
38%
VS

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Rank: #15
62%
Expected Total Games: 23.2
Predicted Winner: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

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Ranking Trends

Alex Michelsen

  • Current #41 2026-02-02
  • 3 mo ago #38 2025-11-10
  • 6 mo ago #33 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #32 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #37 2025-02-10

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

  • Current #15 2026-02-02
  • 3 mo ago #14 2025-11-10
  • 6 mo ago #18 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #26 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #60 2025-02-10

Player Metrics

Alex Michelsen

Form Index: 36.5
ELO Rating: 1298.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1635.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 125.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.3
Clay: 9.0
Grass: 9.8
Serve Rating: 79.5
Return Rating: 64.9

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Form Index: 72.9
ELO Rating: 2270.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1587.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 94.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.2
Clay: 20.7
Grass: 22.5
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 90.2

Recent Matches

Alex Michelsen
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Zachary Svajda (2-0) hard Dallas 94 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Tommy Paul (0-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Reilly Opelka (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Filip Misolic (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Ugo Humbert (1-2) hard Adelaide 152 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alex Michelsen
vs
0
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This Round of 16 match in Dallas, TX — a hard-court contest at a 500-level event — pits 41-ranked Alex Michelsen against 15-ranked Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. The model favors Davidovich Fokina (62.35% vs. Michelsen 37.65%) and projects a relatively short match of about 23.22 total games.

Match Analysis

The contrast in credentials is clear: Davidovich Fokina carries a much higher Elo (2270.72) and form index (72.88) than Michelsen (Elo 1298.54, form 36.50). Michelsen arrives with greater cumulative minutes on court this tournament (125.0 vs. 94.0), which could increase fatigue effects. Surface strength indexes are modest for both on hard courts but tilt toward Davidovich Fokina (14.23 vs. 9.26). Serve and return profiles favor Davidovich Fokina substantially. His mean serve index (97.09) exceeds Michelsen’s (79.53) by more than 17 points, and his mean return index (90.21) is about 25 points higher than Michelsen’s (64.94), giving him edge on both serve initiation and breaking ability. Over their last three matches Michelsen has one win (Dallas over Dimitrov) and two losses (Australian Open to Khachanov, Auckland to Giron), with a mix of long and short matches. Davidovich Fokina has two recent wins (Svajda in Dallas, Opelka earlier) and a loss to Tommy Paul, showing more consistent recent performance and fewer minutes in Dallas, which could help him maintain intensity.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.2 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alex Michelsen - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina) -0.6 Most likely spread: -1 (Alejandro Davidovich Fokina wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction points to about 10.95 total aces in the match and an expected double faults total near 5.02. On medium-paced hard courts, predicted aces are moderate — more than clay but less than grass — and the expected double faults reflect some aggressive serving from the higher-rated server. Given Davidovich Fokina’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute the bulk of the predicted aces, which factors into the overall ace and double faults prediction.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.9 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.0 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Davidovich Fokina’s superior Elo, form, and clear advantages in both serve and return indices give him the edge in this matchup. Watch his serve/return combination and Michelsen’s ability to overcome accumulated fatigue as the key determinants of whether this match stays short or becomes more competitive.

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